Analysts at Mercuria, the Geneva-based Swiss commodities trading firm, are sounding the alarm on the global aluminum market after severe disruptions in the Gulf region, adding to a growing list of trading desks and research teams warning of a deepening supply shock.
“The scale of the supply shock we’re seeing in the aluminum market is probably the largest single supply shock a base metals market has suffered in the post-2000 era,” Mercuria commodities analyst Nick Snowdon told Reuters on the sidelines of the Financial Times Commodities Global Summit in Lausanne, Switzerland.
Snowdon then told Reuters, “We are already in a ‘black swan’ event. No one could have foreseen something on this scale.”
Mercuria is a Swiss commodities trading house based in Geneva. Its traders sell, ship, store, and finance physical commodities across markets such as oil, gas, power, LNG, and metals.
Snowdon’s alarm over the global aluminum market is mainly because the Gulf region accounts for 9% of world supply, and with major smelters already declaring force majeure and the Hormuz chokepoint blocked for much of this week, this is shaping up to be one of the most memorable shocks in the metal market in decades.
Aluminum prices have already surged to a four-year high, and Mercuria estimates the market could face at least a 2 million-ton deficit by the end of the year, potentially worse if the US-Iran conflict drags on and alumina flows through Hormuz chokepoint remain heavily constrained.
“That shortfall compares with about 1.5 million tons of visible inventory and just over 3 million tons of total global stock, including non-visible units, leaving the market with limited buffers,” Snowdon said, adding that a larger deficit is possible.
He warned that the most exposed supply chains to the Gulf shock are in the US and Europe. He noted both regions rely heavily on Middle Eastern aluminum imports and already have low stockpiles.
Last week, JPMorgan analysts warned that the aluminum market is descending into a black hole, or a “metaphorical point of no return,” where the “global aluminum market will face a serious and prolonged supply outage,” even if vessel flows through the Hormuz chokepoint resume in the near term.
Separately, Goldman commodity specialist James McGeoch recently warned clients, “Hard to think of a bigger metal supply shock: High degree of expectation this was where it was heading, but the initial reaction was to fade the uncertainty yesterday. That should be replaced by fresh length if history is a guide.”
From Mercuria to JPM to Goldman, traders and analysts at these mega institutions are all warning of a metal supply shock, with major risks that could curtail the production of anything from planes to tanks to cars and even power infrastructure.