With ‘hard data’ trending weaker, today’s preliminary July PMIs offer the first glimpse at whether the reignition of the Iran War is weighing on ‘soft’ survey sentiment in the US economy.
The data was mixed (as always) with Manufacturing disappointing while Services accelerated more than expected:
“US businesses reported a good start to the third quarter,” said Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, adding that “the ‘flash’ PMI survey data broadly consistent with GDP growing at an annualized 2.0% against a 1.2% pace signalled for the second quarter.”
The month saw an encouraging return to hiring by companies, with employment rising for the first time in three months.
“However, some of this improvement may prove shortlived as July saw hospitality spend boosted by the FIFA World Cup and USA 250 anniversary activities,” warned Williamson.
It was also worrying – though not unexpected – to see manufacturing growth weaken as some of the stock building seen in prior months showed signs of fading.
Instead, July saw a concerning intensification of supply chain delays and accompanying renewed upturn in price pressures, constraining growth and subduing demand.
But Williamson concludes on a more worrisome note, saying that “events over recent days in the Middle East will have only further exacerbated these supply chain and price worries” raising downside risks to the near-term outlook for the economy, “hinting that July’s upturn may not be the start of an improving trend.”