A US official has confirmed that the rare earths trade agreement struck with China last November is still in force.
The agreement, formalized in November 2025 amid escalating trade tensions, was designed to last one year. Under its terms, China agreed to suspend new export controls on rare earth minerals and grant general export licenses. In exchange, the US committed to reducing tariffs on Chinese goods by 10%.
The numbers tell a complicated story
As of March 2026, China’s rare earth magnet exports rose 8.2% year-over-year on a global basis. But shipments specifically destined for the US actually decreased over the same period, raising questions about whether Beijing is fully honoring the spirit of the agreement.
The broader agreement wasn’t limited to rare earths. China also pledged to purchase over 12 million metric tons of US soybeans as part of the deal, alongside commitments to reduce fentanyl exports.
Why rare earths matter more than you think
Rare earth minerals are essential for manufacturing the permanent magnets used in electric vehicles, wind turbines, missile guidance systems, and the advanced semiconductors and GPUs that drive mining operations.
Nvidia, which faced export restrictions in 2025, is one example of a company whose product pipeline depends on stable access to these materials.
Analysts have described the current market conditions as “bullish,” citing reduced trade war risks as a factor that could lower costs for crypto mining hardware and support broader asset valuations. Some traders on social media have drawn connections between the trade agreement’s continuation and improved conditions across risk assets, including crypto.
The clock is ticking
New US procurement regulations set to take effect in January 2027 will prohibit Chinese-sourced rare earths from defense supply chains entirely.
For the crypto industry specifically, the medium-term question is whether alternative supply chains can scale quickly enough to prevent hardware cost inflation once the Chinese supply tap tightens. Mining operations running on thin margins don’t have much room to absorb a sudden jump in GPU or ASIC prices.