Key Takeaways
- Nine Polymarket accounts netted over $2.4M with a 98% win rate on U.S. strikes, triggering insider alarms.
- Over $1B has been bet on military outcomes, bleeding into commodities like an $800M drop in oil futures.
- While Polymarket defends its AI surveillance, the CFTC under Michael Selig is using AI to fight the leaks.
The Rise of Geopolitical Betting
Nine linked accounts on the prediction platform Polymarket earned more than $2.4 million by wagering almost exclusively on the timing of U.S. military actions in Iran, raising alarms among analysts who say the pattern strongly suggests insider trading. Bubblemaps, a blockchain analytics firm, said the accounts placed more than 80 bets with a 98% win rate, including wagers on the dates of the first U.S. strikes, the removal of Iran’s supreme leader and the announcement of a ceasefire.
“This might be the most insane pattern we have found on Polymarket so far,” said Nicolas Vaiman, Bubblemaps’ co‑founder and CEO. “Luck alone cannot explain those numbers.”
According to a CBS report, more than $1 billion has been staked on military outcomes alone. However, the rise has also drawn scrutiny from regulators and investigators concerned that insiders with access to classified information may be exploiting the platforms.
“This is a new kind of insider trading,” said Rob Schwartz, a partner at Morgan Lewis and former Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) official. While Polymarket’s transactions are publicly visible, traders’ identities remain anonymous.
However, Polymarket said it has built “the most comprehensive market integrity infrastructure in the prediction market industry,” combining strict insider‑trading rules, AI‑powered surveillance and blockchain forensics. The company said its enhanced market integrity rules prohibit insider trading, market manipulation and disruptive practices across both its decentralized platform and its CFTC‑regulated U.S. exchange.
Polymarket said it partners with “world‑class data analytics firms” to conduct real‑time trade surveillance and anomaly detection, and that it refers suspicious activity to law enforcement.
“The indictment of Gannon Ken Van Dyke is a demonstration of our commitment in practice,” the company said. “Polymarket identified the activity, referred it to authorities, and the system worked. Insider trading is not welcome on Polymarket, and those who attempt it will be identified.”
Federal prosecutors last month charged Army Master Sgt. Van Dyke with using classified information to place roughly $34,000 in bets on a special operations mission targeting former Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro. Prosecutors say he earned more than $400,000. Van Dyke has pleaded not guilty.
Watchdogs Warn of Systemic Abuse
Bubblemaps’ head of investigations said the number of people with access to sensitive operational details — from planners to intelligence analysts to family members — creates fertile ground for abuse.
Meanwhile, the Anti‑Corruption Data Collective found similar red flags. Its review of long‑shot Polymarket wagers — bets above $2,500 with less than a 35% chance of winning — showed bettors winning more often than expected, suggesting what the group called “systemic insider trading.”
Suspicious activity has also surfaced in traditional commodities markets. On March 23, as fighting in Iran continued, more than $800 million in oil futures were suddenly placed on the expectation that prices would fall. Fifteen minutes later, President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social that the U.S. and Iran had held “very good and productive” talks. Oil prices dropped more than 10%.
“We’re talking tens of millions, could be $80 million,” said David Kovel, a former commodities trader now representing fraud victims. Federal investigators are probing the trades, though no charges have been filed.
The stakes extend beyond financial markets. Emanuel Fabian, a military correspondent for the Times of Israel, said he received violent threats from bettors after reporting that an Iranian missile strike landed in an empty forest — a detail that voided certain Polymarket wagers. Polymarket banned the accounts involved.
Oversight of prediction markets falls to the CFTC, which has seen staffing and enforcement decline in recent years. Chairman Michael Selig declined an interview but said the agency is hiring and using artificial intelligence to identify misconduct. In March, the White House reminded staff that using nonpublic information on prediction markets is a criminal offense.
Deebs warned that the implications go beyond financial crime. If analysts can detect irregular trades, he said, foreign adversaries can too — and may adjust their military planning accordingly.
“Just to put it plainly, this could be putting people’s lives at risk,” he said.