Ted Hisokawa
June 12, 2026 09:13
HBAR is dangerously close to a major support breakdown, with the RSI standing at 37.78, indicating that the selling pressure is not over yet. Target $0.065 within 2-3 weeks before a possible seasonal increase to $0.095.
The immediate installation
HBAR is slowly bleeding at $0.079, trapped in a technical no man’s land that screams indecision. With momentum indicators showing a bearish divergence and the token trading 23% below the Bollinger Band midline, buyers are clearly stepping aside. The daily RSI at 37.78 has not yet found a bottom, while the MACD histogram, which is flat at zero, suggests that any bounce attempt is inconclusive. The $9.9 million trading volume on Binance reflects retail apathy more than institutional accumulation.
Key levels exposed
The technical picture outlines a clear failure scenario. HBAR is trading below all major moving averages: the 20-day SMA of $0.09 and the 50-day SMA of $0.09 act as concrete walls of resistance. The 200-day SMA at $0.10 remains the ultimate confirmation level for the bear market. Blockchain.news’ June 7 analysis, targeting $0.065, aligns perfectly with the lower Bollinger Band at $0.07, creating a convergence zone where smart money is likely to intervene.
Support is weak at $0.075, with the next meaningful level at $0.065 – a 17% drop from current prices that would flush out the remaining weak hands.
Sentiment versus reality
While KOL activity remains eerily quiet and no major forecasts have emerged in the past 24 hours, the reality on the chain tells a different story. The neutral funding rate of 0.0024% suggests that derivatives traders are not positioned for dramatic moves in either direction, creating perfect conditions for a surprise collapse. Previous reporting on Blockchain.news highlighted seasonal recovery patterns, but current price action suggests we need to test lower support before a meaningful rebound occurs.
The absence of bullish stories from crypto Twitter’s usual suspects indicates that smart money is waiting for better entry points.
Actionable trading strategy
In the short term, bears should target the $0.065-0.067 zone with a 60% probability within the next 2-3 weeks. Entry for shorts comes on each jump towards $0.081-0.082 with stops above $0.085. The breakdown accelerates if HBAR decisively loses $0.075.
For swing traders eyeing the seasonal recovery mentioned in the recent analysis, patience pays off. Wait for capitulation volume at $0.065 before piling up for a jump towards $0.095-0.10. Risk management requirements stop below $0.061 – any break there opens the door to sub-$0.05 territory where Blockchain.new would have to reassess the entire bull case.
The key invalidation level is at $0.085. Moreover, the bears are coming under pressure and we could see a quick move back towards $0.092 resistance.
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