This is quite the ambitious headline revealing the latest ‘plan’ for Hormuz to come out of Europe, as it sits on the sidelines watching the US get potentially bogged down in the region following a month of heavy airstrikes on Iran: Europe drafts postwar plan to free up Strait of Hormuz without US, WSJ reports.
This is apparently a plan for after the main crisis is over, amid the strait still being blockaded (with the each warring side insisting it is they in control of the strategic chokepoint waterway). It seems the main idea is to eventually take the United States out of the equation, allowing only for the ‘neutral’ countries to free up and clean the Hormuz Strait.
But the whole thing is very strange – on the one hand, it purports to keep one of the key belligerents, namely the United States, at bay – while on the other envisioning European/NATO military ships engaged in freedom navigation operations, including some mine-clearing.
For example, there is this line from the Journal report: “French President Emmanuel Macron said Tuesday the plan is for an international defensive mission that doesn’t include the ‘belligerent’ parties, meaning the US, Israel and Iran. European diplomats familiar with the plan say European ships wouldn’t be under American command.”
According to a Newsquawk summary of the WSJ main highlights:
—European countries are putting together a plan for a broad coalition of countries to help free up shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, including sending mine-clearing and other military vessels. But the plan would only come after the war and may exclude the US.
—Some differences must still be worked: French diplomats think that any US involvement in the operation would make it less palatable to Tehran, while British officials worry that not including the Americans will anger Trump and limit the operation’s scope.
—The plan has three broad aims:
1) put logistics in place to ensure the hundreds of ships currently stuck in the strait can leave.
2) Employ a major demining operation to clear the way for a far larger number of ships to use a broader part of the strait.
3) Removing Iranian mines in Hormuz is crucial to getting ships going again.
The reality is that this supposed plan brings things back full circle to problem #1... as it’s not as if either Iran, or the United States, will simply shrug and cede control so that a European military coalition can step in and take over.
Which side will ever actually agree to this? The obvious answer, at least for the time being and foreseeable future is… nobody.
And then there’s the question of what leverage or force will Europe employ to assert its military presence in the strait in order to keep all parties in line… some mere harsh language and strong words?