Key Takeaways
- Checkonchain founder James Check says bitcoin’s “time pain” process removes sellers before any major move, leaving no forced liquidation pressure.
- Bank of America triggered 70% of its bear-market indicators in June 2026, lowering its S&P 500 year-end target to 7,100.
- Morningstar valued SpaceX at $780B, roughly 48% below private market prices, citing net losses and unproven Starship economics.
‘Time Pain’ as a Feature
James Check, founder of Checkonchain and co-author of Cointime Economics, laid out the thesis on the TFTC podcast in a clip shared on X. His central argument: as capital rotates into AI and high-growth tech, bitcoin gets left behind, and that neglect is the mechanism, not the risk.
“Everyone always assumes the alligator jaws close by bitcoin going down,” Check said. He added:
“No. They close because bitcoin’s forgotten, then suddenly it’s the only thing in the room that’s moving.”
What he calls “time pain” is the slow attrition of impatient holders rotating out into faster-moving trades. Once that process runs its course, he argues, the remaining holder base has no structural reason to sell, and no one is positioned to force them.
The AI Trade and the Coming IPO Test
Check is direct about the AI investment cycle. He sees it pulling capital out of everything else and generating valuations he says fail a basic smell test, particularly around the SpaceX IPO.
“The numbers are so far off from making sense,” he said. “They’re changing rules to the S&P to stuff this thing in because they don’t have the buyers for it.”
Morningstar’s discounted cash flow analysis supports the skepticism. The firm assigned SpaceX a fair value of $780 billion, roughly 48% to 55% below recent private market valuations near $1.5 trillion and well below reported IPO targets above $1.75 trillion. Morningstar cited ongoing quarterly net losses, heavy future capital expenditure needs, and uncertainty around unproven technologies, including Starship.
Check’s broader read is that a “hero IPO” historically marks the beginning of the end of a bubble cycle. When euphoria peaks at that moment, he expects bitcoin to be sitting at maximum neglect.
Wall Street Is Watching the Same Signals
Bank of America (BofA) strategists, led by Savita Subramanian, recently issued a warning telling investors to take profits. Approximately 70% of the firm’s bear-market indicators had triggered, a level consistent with prior market peaks. BofA cited stretched valuations, narrow AI and tech leadership driving most gains, softening demand signals, and credit stress. The firm lowered its year-end S&P 500 target to 7,100.
The backdrop Check is describing, where hyperscalers are on pace to spend a combined $600 to $725 billion in capital expenditures in 2026 alone, while enterprise AI monetization lags by orders of magnitude, fits the pattern BofA flagged. OpenAI’s internal projections reportedly point to a net loss of roughly $14 billion in 2026 alone, with cumulative losses running into the tens of billions before any path to profitability.
The Capital Rotation Thesis
The capital rotation thesis is gaining attention across financial markets, with several high-profile figures pointing to the trend. The theory holds that investors, both retail and institutional, are selling bitcoin and spot exchange-traded fund (ETF) holdings to free up capital for AI investments.
Much of the focus centers on the anticipated SpaceX IPO because it is so close, and it is expected to seek up to $75 billion at a valuation between $1.5 trillion and $1.75 trillion. Pricing and trading are widely expected around Jun. 11-12, 2026. Investors are also closely watching OpenAI, whose private valuation is estimated between $730 billion and $850 billion and which has filed a confidential S-1. Anthropic is drawing similar attention following recent funding rounds and reports that it, too, has confidentially filed for a public offering.
What This Means for Bitcoin Holders
Check’s framework draws a clean line between two types of capital. “Fast money” chases the hottest narrative and rotates constantly. Long-duration capital, which he says he holds in bitcoin and gold, does not trade cycles. “I don’t trade my gold. I don’t trade my bitcoin,” he remarked. “They’re my long-term savings.”
His view is that the current moment is actively flushing out holders who do not share that conviction. When the flush completes, the remaining holder base has no structural reason to sell into a downturn.
He described the current market structure as “Ponzi-fication of everything,” a late-stage dynamic where career risk pushes fund managers into AI names and away from assets that are not moving. That consensus positioning is, in his read, exactly what sets up the next asymmetric move.
He added:
“I can’t imagine bitcoin’s going to be a heavily owned, heavily forced-sale asset when it’s all said and done. Because we’re in the process of flushing them out as we speak.”