Bitcoin held close to $70,000 despite oil prices briefly trading around $100 a barrel, a move that once would have pushed crypto sharply lower under the usual macro playbook.
According to Crypto Slates According to data, the flagship digital asset rose a modest 0.3% over the past 24 hours, reaching a high of $71,337 before rebounding to $69,803 at the time of writing.
Oil prices rose sharply, with WTI crude rising 4.79% to $92.04 and Brent crude rising 5.24% to $97.22.
The rally followed escalating shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, heightening concerns of a lingering supply shock. Notably, Iran had warned the world to prepare for an oil price of $200 per barrel.
Nevertheless, despite these threats, BTC’s price performance marks a significant departure from previous weeks when rising oil prices pushed the crypto market lower on inflation fears.
While these market fears remain, Bitcoin has shown greater resilience, staying within a set range rather than breaking lower.
Why Doesn’t Bitcoin Price Fall This Time?
One of the clearest catalysts that kept Bitcoin’s price from falling during the recent oil price surge was the waning speculative froth in the market.
Facts from CoinShares showed that BTC leverage ratios had already fallen from around 33% in October 2025 to 25% in early March, which is again close to the long-term average.
According to the company:
“The market structure at the start of the crisis was already significantly cleaner, following an estimated $30 billion of whale distribution over the past five months, pushing valuations and technical indicators into oversold territory. With leverage reduced and much of the motivated selling already exhausted, the market was better positioned to absorb the new demand.”
Meanwhile, BTC exchange-traded fund (ETF) flows have also become less hostile at a crucial point in the market.
According to CoinShares, digital asset investment products raised more than $1 billion in the first five days of March, following five consecutive weeks of outflows totaling about $4 billion.
Facts from Glassnode also confirmed this, noting that flows into 12 US spot Bitcoin ETFs are stabilizing, with their 7-day moving average returning to positive territory after weeks of sustained institutional outflows.
Furthermore, Santiment’s data also points to a market that has outpaced sentiment in recent months, but still struggles with brittle conviction.
According to Santiment, Bitcoin’s 365-day MVRV shows that long-term returns on the blockchain are at about the same level as the last week of 2022.
At the time, the 365-day MVRV was deeply negative following the FTX collapse, but Bitcoin rose 67% in the following three months.
Santiment said the current divergence is notable even with very different macro conditions and the added influence of Strategy’s aggressive accumulation.
At the same time, spot market demand for BTC has begun to recover and the cumulative volume delta has recovered as buyers absorb the sell-side liquidity on the major exchanges.
That combination helps explain why Bitcoin hasn’t responded to the oil boom as it often did in earlier phases of the cycle.
Can BTC maintain its current resilience?
Considering this, the question that begs for an answer is whether BTC can maintain its current resilience and rise even further under the current restrictions.
Notably, the on-chain picture supports the idea that the top crypto could continue to show strength if current indicators remain positive.
Facts from Alpharactal showed that liquidation levels are becoming increasingly apparent, with the majority of open positions now on the long side. Bitcoin previously moved in a volatile sideways range, forcing liquidations in both long and short positions.
According to the company, the maximum pain for longs is around $61,000, while shorts are concentrated around $75,000.
That creates pressure points on both sides of the spectrum and helps determine the market’s next decision.
Glassnode also noted that BTC is currently seeing an accumulation cluster forming in the middle of its $62,800 to $72,600 range, although its intensity remains below that of previous episodes that led to stronger expansions.
This is supported by data from Alpharactal, which showed that Bitcoin’s RVT ratio is rising.
The realized value-transaction ratio compares the realized limit with the daily adjusted transfer volume in the chain. A rising value usually indicates that coins are circulating less on-chain, more capital is being held rather than traded, and network activity is weaker relative to the amount of value stored.
According to the company, the indicator’s 28-day moving average suggests that capital stored in Bitcoin continues to grow faster than on-chain economic activity.
Historically, these phases often correspond to accumulation or weaker demand in the chain, rather than broad speculative overheating.
What next for BTC?
If BTC maintains its current price resilience, the futures trader positioning the asset leaves room for a move higher.
According to Glassnode, perpetual futures funding has turned negative, indicating a growing short position. In previous episodes, this setup has given the market room to push higher prices when companies buy locally.
Facts from CME Group showed about $660 million in Bitcoin call open interest in March, compared to about $240 million in puts. Glassnode added that roughly $2 billion of negative gamma is concentrated around the $75,000 strike, of which about $1.8 billion expires on March 27.
If Bitcoin breaks through the low $70,000s and reaches that zone, dealer hedging could help accelerate the move towards $80,000.
These numbers suggest that traders have eased aggressive short-term hedging, but have not yet built strong directional conviction around an immediate breakout.