Significant progress has reportedly been made in negotiations between Iran and the United States. According to the Financial Times, the parties are very close to an agreement that would extend the current ceasefire for another 60 days. Mediators believe the agreement would also lay the groundwork for broader discussions on Iran’s nuclear program.
According to senior sources close to the negotiations, the draft agreement includes a commitment to gradually reopen the Strait of Hormuz and to discuss the depletion or transfer of Iran’s highly enriched uranium to another country. In return, the US is expected to ease its blockade of Iranian ports, agree to some sanctions waivers, and gradually release frozen Iranian assets abroad.
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A diplomat familiar with the talks said, “The agreement is moving in the right direction. The draft text has been submitted to the U.S. for review, and it appears that Iran is willing to make further concessions on the nuclear issue.” Sources indicated that progress accelerated particularly after critical meetings between Pakistani and Qatari mediators and Iranian officials on Thursday and Friday.
According to Saudi Arabia-based Al-Hadath news agency, Iran has proposed keeping its uranium enrichment level below 3.6% for 10 years and reducing its domestic enrichment activities by more than 20%.
Iran, while confirming it would guarantee not to develop nuclear weapons under a potential agreement, insists on retaining its right to limited uranium enrichment. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Ismail Bekayi said that after weeks of talks, “Iran and the US have reached a more convergent position on their views,” and that the parties were in the final stages of finalizing a memorandum of understanding.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio also confirmed that certain progress had been made in the Iran talks. Rubio stated that new announcements regarding Iran could be made in the coming days.
On the other hand, according to data from the forecasting platform Polymarket, investors are increasingly pricing in the possibility of the US and Iran reaching a lasting peace agreement. Accordingly, the probability has risen to 20% before May 31st and to 53% before June 30th.
*This is not investment advice.