Bitcoin’s steady climb to a new all-time high in October has revived the familiar question of whether the next breakout could mark the first sustained run to $150,000.
The optimism follows a surge in derivatives positioning and ETF inflows, suggesting that institutional momentum may be reshaping the upper bound of the cycle, rather than simply fueling another speculative rally.
Derivatives market lit the fuse
On Derive.xyz, options traders have already made up their minds and believe the flagship digital asset is trending upward.
According to data shared with CryptoSlateContracts priced to expire before the end of October are trending aggressively upward, implying expectations of a move as high as $150,000.
Dean Dawson, head of research at Derive, says the format reflects more than just optimism. He noted:
“Bitcoin volatility is about to breakout. Implied volatility over 14, 30 and 90 days has risen to all-time highs in the past 30 days, indicating increased anticipation of big moves in the future.”
However, this movement does not stand alone. The price is measured against macroeconomic reality, in particular against the almost unanimous expectation of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve this month. Polymarket traders put the chances at about 90%, and that probability cuts across every liquidity-sensitive asset class.
Interest rate cuts reduce the real return on cash and increase the appeal of higher beta assets such as Bitcoin. The data shows that volatility follows liquidity, and that liquidity is picking up again for the time being.
Discover the inflows of Bitcoin ETFs
That newfound liquidity is most visible in spot Bitcoin ETFs, which still serve as the most transparent window into institutional sentiment.
So far this month, the twelve funds have attracted over $5 billion in new capital and are on track to surpass the record of $6.49 billion set last November, when Bitcoin broke the $100,000 mark for the first time.
In support of this view, CryptoQuant noted that the Coinbase Premium Index, a gauge of U.S. institutional demand, has remained positive for 42 consecutive days, underscoring continued accumulation by regulated investors.
According to a study by K33 reportBitcoin’s 30-day average return with positive ETF flows is 8.2%. When monthly inflows exceed 20,000 BTC, this figure rises to 23.6%, compared to a rate of -4% during the outflow periods between 2020 and 2023.
The bottom line is that when structured investment vehicles raise capital, BTC is quietly taken out of circulation, tightening the float. If the pattern holds, the current inflow momentum could push Bitcoin towards $130,000 to $150,000 without ever sparking a speculative mania.
The exchange supply decreases
Another key bullish signal for BTC’s march towards $150,000 is the decreasing supply of the currency.
Data from Glassnode shows that reserves held on the exchange have fallen to a multi-year low of 2.838 million BTC, or 14.24% of the total supply. This is further supported by the fact that Bitwise noted that large BTC holders withdrew 49,158 BTC last week, which is the 143rd largest outflow ever.
According to the company:
“[While] these transfers could be related to internal exchange rate movements, but the combination of increasing purchasing volumes and the reduction of exchange rate balances supports the validity of this observation.”
Additionally, the asset management firm reported that realized gains among short-term holders last week were just $3.07 billion. Notably, this is less than a third of what was seen at the 2021 peak.
In other words, the market goes up without people rushing to sell. Coins disappear from the exchanges, but do not flow back when prices rise. This represents a textbook example of supply compression and, by extension, price acceleration.
Macro tides favor Bitcoin
In addition to crypto-specific data, the global environment is quietly strengthening the fundamentals of Bitcoin’s potential rally.
According to Bitwise, rising geopolitical risks and persistent inflationary pressures have made stability in the United States elusive. Meanwhile, global borrowing has soared, putting pressure on fiat currencies and reigniting demand for hard assets like gold.
Gold, long considered a traditional hedge, is up 50.03% this year, surpassing Bitcoin’s year-to-date performance. Yet that force has divided investor opinion.
One camp believes that gold’s rally is overextended, prompting reallocations to alternatives like Bitcoin, a similar hedge against currency decline but with a lower valuation premium. The other camp expects gold to remain dominant, supported by central bank accumulation, retail buying in China and policy uncertainty surrounding President Trump’s trade agenda.
In any case, the liquidity outlook is in favor of both assets. Central banks appear poised to maintain looser monetary policies, including lower interest rates, potential yield curve controls and expanded balance sheets, which could lead to capital flooding the markets. Liquidity often migrates to the edges of institutional risk mandates, where Bitcoin increasingly finds itself.
As such, investors on both sides of the ‘store of value’ divide could converge towards the same behavior. Gold reallocators may move into digital assets seeking asymmetric benefits, while traditional allocators chasing beta will still see Bitcoin supported by the same liquidity tide.
Ultimately, both stories converge on the same destination: a renewed capital influx into digital assets, driven by a global search for protection in an era of structural monetary expansion.
