More than half of the circulating offer from Bitcoin has not been moved in 12 months, a structural characteristic that will determine how the market absorbs the demand for the end of the year.
Per BitboAbout 61% of the coins have been dormant for more than a year, with the deepest cohort, more than ten years, at around 17%.
The last HODL GELVEN SPLITST shows 7-10 years near 8%, 5-7 years near 5%, 3-5 years near 13%, 2-3 years near 7%, 1-2 years near 11.5%, 6-12 months near 13%, 3-6 months near 9.5%, 1-3 months in the vicinity of 9.5%.
These tires measure the offer through the latest on-chain movement, no change in the total offer, and are sensitive to inner and exchange tagging choices between providers.
Realized HODL waves, which weight tires per cost base instead of the number of coins, can reveal the economic weight of holders, a valuable lens to see if Rally’s rely on thin, short-term flaring or broader conviction of the balance sheet.
The supply profile crosses with a demand under the background formed by regulated funds and macro policy. In the week ending on October 4, crypto exchange products saw net intake of approximately $ 5.95 billion, led by American spot products.
For a price of approximately $ 125,000 per bitcoin, a week of $ 5.95 billion implies an absorption of approximately 47,600 BTC, equal to around 0.24% of the circulating food, if such a pace for a full week remained.
This framing does not assume a constant inflow; It determines a basic line against the size and behavior of shorter cohorts, which offer more historically from the marginal sales side.
Short age remains useful.
The combination of 1-3 months, 3-6 months and 6-12 months accounts for around 30 to 35 percent of the offer, based on the latest reading. That is the bandmix that is the most sensitive to price and macro shifts more than a quarter.
These cohorts realize the tendency to realize profit in strength, while the group usually rotates slower for two years and older. A cross check for breathing new life into a cross -checker or older holders has been destroyed.
Per BitboFollowing the 90-day advancing average of CDD in addition to price helps to identify revival peaks from long-term coins versus silent accumulation periods where the age of the coin continues to build.
A steady or falling CDD trend in higher prices implies a modest distribution by holders in the long term, while a sharp CDD increase in addition to volatility often marks aging coins that come on the market.
The macropolit can influence the mix of flows and the arrangement of middle -aged holders until the end of the year. The Federal Reserve has reduced the policy percentage in September by 25 basic points and the summary of economic projections pointed to extra relaxation in 2025, subject to inflation results.
The Median Pad implies a lower policy percentage next year.
US consumer prices in August increased by 2.9 percent year after year.
The disinflation Trend remains uneven but has been taken from earlier peaks. A path of moderating inflation and gradual policy improvement can compress the real yields in the margin, a mix that has supported historically risky appetite, including flows in Bitcoin-linked products, although the causal chain is probabilistic instead of deterministic.
The Supply-Demand Math can be framed with simple scenarios that the fund maps, floats from shorter bands available. With the help of the same price anchor for comparability, every billion dollars in inflow of $ 125,000 per BTC absorbs around 8,000 BTC.
A weekly reach from $ 0.5 to 2.0 billion implies 4,000 to 16,000 BTC per week, which can be compared with plausible monthly rotation percentages of the cohorts of 1-12 months.
If 30 percent of the supply is in these tires, a monthly rotation of 5 percent would hand in approximately 0.05 x 0.30 × 19.7 million, or approximately 295,500 BTC for a month, which is on average nearly 73,900 BTC per week.
That figure would overwhelm an inflow pace of $ 0.5 to 2.0 billion, but rotation is rarely uniform and is often clustered around price events and derivatives positioning.
If the rotation drops to 1 percent per month, the weekly release would be nearly 14,800 BTC, a scale that could fully compensate for an inflow week of $ 2 billion.
The modeling objective is not to resolve a prediction, but to define thresholds where demand absorbs or is absorbed by the supply pile in the short term.
| Hodl -Band | Ca. part |
|---|---|
| > 10 years | ~ 17% |
| 7-10 years | ~ 8% |
| 5-7 years | ~ 5% |
| 3-5 years | ~ 13% |
| 2-3 years | ~ 7% |
| 1-2 years | ~ 11.5% |
| 6-12 months | ~ 13% |
| 3-6 months | ~ 7.5% |
| 1-3 months | ~ 9.5% |
| <1 month | ~ 5% |
A separate lens is the realized CAP HODL waves, which follow the share of the realized value of age tires. An increasing share for older bands due to realized value implies a growing economic footprint of long -term holders.
In the end of the year, if CDD remains and the realized HODL waves continue to lean, rallies can be less dependent on fresh capital than on a thinner side of holders with a higher cost-based discipline.
Conversely, when CDD climbs, while ETP flows slowly, middle-aged ties would expand as new life revived coins reset their age, a pattern that is often seen after all-time highlights while the market digests.
| Scenario | Adopted net ETP current, weekly | Implicit BTC absorbed, weekly | Short-age rotation, monthly | Implicitly released BTC, weekly |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low question | $ 0.5 billion | ~ 4,000 | 5% | ~ 73.900 |
| Base | $ 1.5 billion | ~ 12,000 | 2% | ~ 29,600 |
| Great question | $ 4.0 billion | ~ 32,000 | 1% | ~ 14,800 |
Wisselsali remain a viewed metric in this context.
According to several public dashboards, Saldi are on centralized exchanges in the vicinity of multi -year lows, although this metric has reserved. Wallet practices, off-Exchange settlement and internalization can lower counts when exchanging without changing the salable more float.
Exchange stagging is imperfect and must be linked to other signals, including the depth of the ordering book, the futures base and the age flows on the chain, before they take out a supply shock.
Price context frames these streams and tires, but does not change the accounting.
Bitcoin went into price discovers this week, overlapping with the strong fund-flow week. Whether such inflow persists depends on risky appetite and policy expectations.
If the inflation lectures in the vicinity of the recent annual pace of 2.9 percent and policy strends are in the direction of gradual relaxation, there is room for continuous allocations of vehicles that previously had no bitcoin.
If inflation is accelerated or policy guidelines are restrictive, the shorter age tires can provide more inventory as traders DIIK, a shift that would first appear in CDD and the share of 1-3 months.
The task in the coming weeks is to follow three elements in combination.
Firstly, weekly ETP -Netto compared to the 8,000 BTC per one billion dollar absorption branch, with the coinshares -as a basic line.
Secondly, CDD’s 90-day trend and every revival are at the prize.
Thirdly, the tilt of HODL waves on both a coins and the realized value.
Together, these series describe whether the market comes from a deep, patient base or a short -term stock that turns faster. This will determine how every further demand interacts with a supply stack that is considerably outdated in October.
