The question came from veteran macro investor Dan Tapiero, one of the few old-guard financiers whose entire career has revolved around spotting turning points. “What if hyperbitcoinization is really about to begin?” He asked on Sunday, just as gold went vertical and faith in fiat money began to crack like thin ice.
It’s a question that’s hard to dismiss when you look at the data. Everywhere you turn, the signs point in the same direction. The world’s post-war monetary system, strained by debt, inflation and political distrust, is showing its seams.
Hyperbitcoinization and the golden prelude
Analysts are at all commodity agencies call it the most aggressive gold rally in living memory. The precious metal has risen almost 25% since August, crossing the $4,200 per ounce mark on October 17. In fact, gold’s total market cap surpassed $30 trillion this week, surpassing Microsoft and Nvidia.
This move was fueled by geopolitical uncertainty, record central bank and Federal Reserve purchases careful shift towards easing after the first interest rate cut in nine months. Such parabolic moves usually mark panic, either towards safety or away from confidence. And this time, that panic appears to be monetary.
If gold reprices risk, history suggests Bitcoin won’t be far behind. The world’s largest cryptocurrency, long called digital gold, already reached $126,000 in early October. But unlike precious metals, Bitcoin doesn’t just store value; its network embodies a monetary architecture that is independent of the system that investors are becoming increasingly wary of.
The Vanishing Bitcoin Supply
Analytics firm Glassnode reports that currency balances have fallen to their lowest levels since 2019, with more than 45,000 BTC ($4.8 billion) withdrawn in October alone. When coins leave exchanges, they typically go into cold storage, indicating long-term conviction rather than short-term speculation. They are not traders chasing profit; they are investors quietly gathering and positioning themselves for endurance.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s mining backbone appears stronger than ever. According to data from JPMorgan, the network’s hashrate is hovering around 1,030 exahashes per second, a record level. That represents trust on a grand scale. Miners don’t double down on their precious hardware unless they expect long-term returns. The Bitcoin network has never been more secure, or more expensive to attack.
Fiat fatigue
Alongside crypto, fiat currencies are quickly losing credibility. Like the Kobeissi letter pointed out at the record highs of gold and silver:
“When safe havens pile up with risky assets, it says one thing: trust in fiat currencies is eroding.”
When investors lose confidence in both bonds and currencies, they default to hard assets: real estate, gold and, increasingly, Bitcoin. The market is not only hedging anymore, but also looking for lifeboats.
The institutional tide is rising
Institutional flows confirm the shift. Galaxy digital research reports that US spot Bitcoin ETPs, approved less than two years ago, now have around $250 billion under management, less than 20% shy of surpassing gold ETPs.
Major hedge funds such as Tudor Investment, Millennium and DE Shaw have joined public pension funds such as the Wisconsin Investment Board in adding exposure to Bitcoin. Bitcoin is no longer a rebellious niche holding; it is a recognized macro asset class, liquid, auditable and sovereignly resilient.
Hyperbitcoinization or just a new cycle?
Skeptics argue that “hyperbitcoinization” (the point at which Bitcoin becomes the de facto settlement layer of the world) has been predicted too many times to mean anything. But Tapiero’s question goes deeper: what if it starts not through public adoption, but through institutional humiliation?
Each metric tells part of the story: record hashrate, shrinking currency supply, rising institutional inflows and collapsing confidence in fiat. Individually they resemble market noise. Together they outline something bigger: a migration of trust from paper promises to programmable scarcity.
The gold blow-off top is a warning; Another example is the hoarding of hard assets by central banks. Bitcoin, programmed, transparent and scarce, is now ready to absorb what the old system can no longer sustain. Trust in fiat money is cracking from the top down, while Bitcoin’s network trust is increasing from the bottom up.
When these two curves eventually intersect, hyperbitcoinization will not be accompanied by fireworks. It will unfold as all major monetary shifts do: slowly and all at once.
