The quiet rally of Bitcoin has attracted the attention of Wall Street and beyond, but some voices of OG Bitcoiners such as American Hodl predict that what we have seen so far is just the calmness for an explosive storm.
The Bitcoin Treasury Bubble Thesis
The Bitcoin Treasury Bubble thesis is that within just a few years a tidal wave of business, institutional and possibly sovereign capital of a total of $ 11 trillion in Bitcoin could overflow. Some projections suggest that real mania may not hit until 2026 or afterwards, making the price as high as $ 1 million per coin.
Swan Bitcoin Exchange This dissertation worked outInvestigating the signals, mechanics and real-world examples to support the case for a Bitcoin-Treasury bubble that could match the wildest days of the DOT-Com tree. Let’s view it.
A historical structure: from $ 2.4 T-active to company standard
This month, Bitcoin marked a new of all time high above $ 120,000, which pushed its market haircut to $ 2.4 trillion, only behind Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia and Gold.
Yet this movement has come with little public awareness or euphoria. The price has a quiet way in a calm way, not led by speculation of the retail trade, but by deliberate, low-profile business and institutional purchases. As Swan noted:
“This is the least euphoric bull market we have ever seen … and that is Bullish.”
Public companies ranging from Strategy for Metaplanet, Gamestop to Trump Media collects Bitcoin on their balance sheets, and more new models, such as the pioneer by Strive Asset Management, see companies Convert cash reserves For Bitcoin, not for speculation but as an inflation department and long -term property.
Weakening dollars, reduced safe ports
JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon has recently warned that if the US cannot hold the ballooning debt, America could lose its position as a reserve activity of the world. He said:
“I just don’t know if it will be a crisis in six months or six years, and I hope that we change both the trajectory of the debt and the ability of market makers to make markets. Unfortunately, we may need that to wake us up.”
The payments of the American debts are expected to achieve from the tax year 2025 $ 952 billionAnd while the dollar loses shine, the story of Bitcoin strengthens as “digital gold” and a reserveom.
Blackrock CEO Larry Fink echoed Dimon’s concern and said:
“If the US does not get its debt under control, if shortages remain ballooning, America runs the risk of losing a position on digital assets such as Bitcoin.”
The return of easy money
The bond market is praise Interest rates, which suggests a potential return to “easy money” conditions in 2026. Lower rates mean cheap capital, more risk -on sentiment and historically an increase in asset prices, including Bitcoin. As Swan noted:
“Bitcoin ran $ 42k → $ 123k during the closest monetary policy in modern history.
What happens when the liquidity flows in again? “
Do you remember the Lockdown era? When rate reductions during the COVID-19 Pandemie encourage the rally after a rally on crypto markets, with parabolic profit as the highlight for Bitcoin? With another cycle of speed that may be cut on the horizon, the setup seems creepy comparable.
The Bitcoin Treasury Bubble Mechanics
According to Swan, large buyers are still usually on the sidelines, so that mergers and legal structures are completed. Names such as Nakamoto, twenty-one capital and Strive Asset Management still have to fully use capital, but prepare his multi-billion dollars mandates.
While coins are absorbed by business treasury chists by algorithmic ‘dripping’, the available delivery dries up without dramatic price peaks.
If enough boardrooms and sovereigns become ‘pray’ at the same time, price promotion could become ‘reflexive’ where buying through one entity activates more entities to chase Bitcoin, which climb the late 90s for ‘internet stories’.
Just as every DOT-COM needed an “internet story” to survive in 1999, every large company will soon feel busy having a “Bitcoin strategy”. This “narrative infection” can push the prices to unimaginable heights (much further than what Fundamentals would only suggest).
Where can this lead? $ 1 million bitcoin and beyond
American HODL sees, among other things, a realistic path:
“I think the bubble of the Treasury Company Dot-Com level can grow up. We could see a 3-4-year-old run that costs Bitcoin far beyond a million dollars.”
This is not isolated. Bitmex’s Arthur Hayes and long-term Bitcoin lawyer Mark Moss too projected A $ 1,000,000 BTC by 2030.
So is it plausible that we see the opening movements of a bubble that can match the DOT-COM era? The pieces fall into place. Mania may have been removed for another year or two, but if history rhymes, the blow-off top Bitcoin could bring to levels that few thought possible a few years ago.
