With New Year’s Eve just around the corner, so too are the Polymarket 2025 prediction markets, which are open for traders to bet on events for the next twelve months.
After the excitement of the 2024 election, sports betting has become the top category for 2025 predictions. In the 2025 section of the site, traders seem most focused on the 2025 NFL Draft, which leads with $465,998 in bets. Contract participants monitor quarterback prospects and broader scouting developments, which reflects the platform’s highest level of activity.
However, other forecast markets for 2025 show a significant drop in volume. The second largest contract concerns Bitcoin price prospects, raising just $28,640. The chance of the price reaching $120,000 is 70%, and the chance of the price falling to $70,000 is 55%. Heading into the new year, Bitcoin is around $94,000, and the price to regain $100,000 within the next twelve months is at 94%.
The contract for the Federal Reserve’s 2025 action includes $27,507 in stakes, which implies an 11% chance of zero rate cuts, 19% of a single 25 basis point cut, and 29% of two cuts. Another contract gauges the likelihood of a rate hike, currently at 15%. Combined, these figures reveal divergent views on the pace of potential policy shifts ahead of the new administration.
Whether Vladimir Putin will leave the presidency in 2025 indicates a 13% chance, while traders also appear to be focusing on a possible ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine at 71%. In the Middle East, Netanyahu’s departure stands at 27%, while the chance of Iran’s Supreme Leader leaving power stands at 44%. These contracts suggest continued but meager demand for hedges related to geopolitical shifts.
Terrifyingly, the possibility of a nuclear weapon detonation in 2025 has a 22% chance, highlighting concerns about escalating tensions in multiple regions. However, even a test detonation would qualify.
“For the purposes of this market resolution, any detonation of a nuclear weapon anywhere on planet Earth or in space will be sufficient to trigger a “Yes” resolution. This includes offensive use, nuclear testing and accidental detonations.”
These geopolitical contracts are related to energy supply factors and possible sanctions that could affect global commodity flows.
Corporate events are also prominently featured. The market to determine which company could have the largest market capitalization in 2025 highlights NVIDIA at 26% and Apple at 36%.
In the stablecoin markets, a contract about Tether’s potential depegging is at 16%, while a question about Tether’s possible insolvency has only an 11% probability.
Polymarket’s largest betting markets
However, beyond the specific 2025 markets, Polymarket’s highest volume markets also remain focused on sports. The Champions League market points to a British victory, with a stake of $699,410,841. The top teams are Arsenal with 14% and Liverpool with 18%, while Manchester City is close to 10%
The NBA Champion contract follows closely behind at $410,909,837, where the Celtics have a 26% chance. Another notable football market, the Premier League winner totals $341,757,688, implying a 71% chance for Liverpool to win and 13% for Arsenal.
In the NBA, the Eastern Conference champion has $239,279,029 on the Celtics with a percentage of 46% and the
Cleveland Cavaliers at 16%.
Sports may remain Polymarket’s dominant segment until 2025, with no presidential elections on the horizon. Still, a cross-section of geopolitical and financial contracts collectively illustrates a broad interest in how leadership changes, monetary policy adjustments, and security challenges can evolve.
