Polymarket bettors forecast 75% chance Bitcoin reaches $120k in 2025 as prediction volume jumps 30%

Data from the forecast market shows that traders focus millions on the price of Bitcoin that reaches levels above $ 120,000 in 2025.

On the decentralized Polymarket platform has a market that asks what price Bitcoin will hit in 2025, more than $ 15.5 million in volume. Traders told a 75% chance that it will be active at the end of the year higher than $ 120,000.

The data offers a quantifiable view of the market conduction, so sentiment is translated into financially supported probabilities.

The platform indicates a 55% chance that Bitcoin exceeds $ 130,000 and a 33% chance of breaking the $ 150,000. More ambitious goals, such as $ 200,000, get a chance of 13%.

A separate market focused on the immediate term is more conservative; With more than $ 3.5 million in volume, it means a probability of 58% that Bitcoin is higher than $ 115,000 by 1 August 2025, but only a 30% chance that it crossed $ 120,000 in the same period.

This activity is determined against a background of significant evolution for polymarket itself. According to facts Van Dune Analytics expanded the user base and the volume of the platform during the American elections of 2024, which brought the monthly volume to a peak of $ 2.6 billion in November 2024.

A new basic line of activity was established in the months after the election. Last month’s trade volume was $ 1.16 billion, a figure of more than nine times higher than the volume that was registered in June last year.

The number of active traders, at 241,000 last month, was more than seven times higher than the previous year. This suggests that the platform has retained part of the audience that it has acquired during the controversial political event.

The composition of platform activity seems to be shifting. Since a peak of 455,000 active traders in January 2025, the number of participants has fallen by 47%.

Platform volume, on the other hand, has been restored and grows by 30% from April to June 2025. This divergence can indicate a consolidation of activity in a smaller group of more capitalized or higher conviction traders.

The average volume per trader has been found from a low of approximately $ 2,000 in February 2025 to around $ 4,800 in June 2025, which supports the idea that existing users act in larger sizes. Recent reports notice the growth of the platform and his recent collaboration with X, that founder of Polymarket Shayne Coplan framed as the union of ‘The two best -seeking apps’.

Although prediction markets offer a new form of sentiment analysis, their predictions reflect the current, crowd-sourced beliefs and not certain results.

The user base may not represent the wider financial world, and all markets bear inherent risks, including the potential for manipulation by actors with large quantities of capital. Polymarket, however, surpassed almost all traditional polling methods during the US 2025 elections. Nevertheless, the regulatory environment for prediction markets also remains complex Different areas of law, Like the US itself, even in the midst of the newest $ 1 billion appreciation.

Nevertheless, the substantial volume and the clear directional probability on display offers a clear, data -driven perspective on which active traders expect that the price of Bitcoin will be trend from the time price of $ 109,093.

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