Morning minute: Polymarket gets green light; Kalshi hits a wall

Morning Minute is a daily newsletter written by Tyler Warner. The analyzes and opinions expressed are his own and do not necessarily reflect those of Decrypt. Subscribe to the Morning Minute on Substack.

GM!

Today’s most important news:

• Crypto majors light red; BTC at $86,700
• Polymarket has been cleared by CFTC to operate in the US
• Kalshi blocked sports markets in Nevada after the order was lifted
• Texas is purchasing $5 million worth of BTC through IBIT for state-level BTC Reserve
• MON Token Rises Another 24% to $4.8 Billion FDV, Leading All Top Gainers

⚖️ Polymarkt gets the green light; Kalshi hits a wall

Two major regulatory decisions affecting the prediction markets have just been scrapped.

And they point in completely opposite directions.

📌What happened

Yesterday, Polymarket received formal approval from the CFTC to operate legally in the United States.

It enables Polymarket to attract U.S. users through regulated intermediaries and broker partners, and to offer marketplaces that pass federal risk, suitability and contract type tests.

This is a complete turnaround since 2022, when the CFTC fined and effectively banned Polymarket from serving US customers.#

Kalshi, meanwhile, came straight to the opposite result.

In April, Kalshi won one preliminary injunction stopping Nevada gambling regulators from imposing a cease and desist order.

Yesterday, the same federal judge (Andrew Gordon) reversed himself and lifted that order, siding with the Nevada Gaming Control Board.

Nevada argued that Kalshi’s sports “event contracts” are merely sports betting and require a Nevada gambling license. And election contracts fall into the same category.

Now that the ban has been resolved, Nevada can treat Kalshi like any other sportsbook and order them to stop offering sports contracts or face enforcement.

This means Kalshi will have to geofence Nevada or apply for a Nevada gambling license.

So now Polymarket is federally approved and Kalshi is blocked at the state level.

🗣️ What do they say

Kalshi’s interpretation “would require all sports betting nationwide to fall under the jurisdiction of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC)”

“This interpretation disrupts decades of federalism regarding gaming regulation, is contrary to the intent of Congress … and cannot be sustained.” – Judge Gordon

“As other courts have recognized, Kalshi is a regulated, nationwide exchange for real-world events, and falls under exclusive federal jurisdiction. It is very different from what state-regulated sportsbooks and casinos offer their customers. We are evaluating the decision and expect to appeal to the Ninth Circuit.” – Sara Slane, head of business development at Kalshi

🧠Why it matters

This was a very mixed day for the futures of US prediction markets.

The Polymarket news is a big positive and now the world’s largest player has the green light to start operating in the US.

That’s huge.

But what will “operating in the US” look like in 2026?

Kalshi is now effectively blocked in Nevada, and other states are likely to follow Nevada’s lead. For perspective, DraftKings and FanDuel are blocked in some capacity in 10-15 states.

Kalshi can (and probably will) still appeal the decision, as their head of business development suggested. So it’s not over yet.

But now Kalshi and now Polymarket will likely face similar blocks (or at least ongoing lawsuits) in more states where gambling is banned, based on this Nevada precedent.

That’s a big setback.

The war over the free and open use of the US prediction market is far from resolved.

One battle won, one lost – and many more to come…

🌎 Macrocrypto and memes

A few Crypto and Web3 headlines that caught my attention:

• Crypto majors are slightly red; BTC -1% at $86,600; ETH -1% at $2,910, BNB +1% at $856, SOL even at $136
• MON (+24%), SPX (+13%) and IP (+7%) top movers
• Texas Started Up Its Bitcoin Reserve By Buying $5 Million In BlackRock’s IBIT ETF, And Started Deploying An Approved $10 Million BTC Budget
• American bank tested issuing its own stablecoin on the Stellar network
• MaanPay secured a trust charter in New York, joined Coinbase and Ripple, and expanded its ability to hold assets and serve institutions
• Polymarkt received CFTC approval to re-enter the US, paving the way for direct access to domestic users, brokers and intermediaries
• Kalshi was effectively blocked from offering sports and election marketplaces in Nevada after a judge reversed his original ruling
• Clarna has announced a KlarnaUSD stablecoin on Tempo
• The Department of Homeland Security has been investigating Bitmain as a national security risk, in an effort to determine whether it can remotely access its equipment

In corporate bonds/ETFs

• Metaplanet revealed plans to use its existing Bitcoin stash as collateral for a $130 million loan, with the intention of buying even more BTC for its treasury
• Saylor’s strategy shared that even if BTC falls to $74,000, they will have 5.9x as much assets as convertible debt

In Memes / Onchain movers

• Memecoin Leaders are mostly red, led by SPX; DOGE even, Shiba +3%, PEPE even, PENGU -6%, BONK -3%, TRUMP -2%, SPX +14% and FARTCOIN -10%
• RECT rose 37% in a rebound to $120 million FDV
• WOJAK Up 100% to $37 Million Leading Onchain Movers; Billy (+2,200%) and Toly (+800%) were other notable movers

💰 Token, airdrop and protocol tracker

Here’s an overview of the top token, protocol and airdrop news of the day:

🚚 What’s happening in NFTs?

Here is the list of other notable headlines of the day in NFTs:

• NFT Leaders were mostly flat on Tuesday; Punks -1% at 30.8 ETH, Pudgy -1% at 5.67, BAYC -1% at 5.89 ETH; Hypurr’s +3% at 720 HYPE
• Infinex patrons (+22%) and Good Vibes Club (+13%) were the leaders