Moon or Doom: Will Ethereum Defy Bitcoin’s Decline and Bearish Signals?

As the crypto market loses steam and the price of Bitcoin falls to lows not seen since early summer, traders are looking to alternative assets: Where will the price of Ethereum, the second largest crypto asset by market, go?

Ethereum, which trades as ETH, opened today at $3,415.8 and has risen to $3,473.2 – a modest 1.69% gain that does little to ease the tension around where ETH is headed. Prediction markets tell different stories, and the charts suggest that one of the stories may be suffering from serious hopium.

On Myriad, a prediction market built by Decrypt’s parent company Dastan, users posted a 65% chance that Ethereum will rise to $4,000 before dumping to $2,500. However, on a separate market on Myriad, users say there is a 79.1% chance that ETH will not reach $5,000 by the end of the year. That may seem like a disconnect, but it’s a reflection of how much momentum the crypto market has lost over the past few months.

Bitcoin’s dominance has risen to 60%, meaning BTC has gained a 60% market share over competing assets, creating a ‘Bitcoin Season’ that is suffocating. altcoins. The Fear & Greed Index is at 24, firmly in fear territory, down from 38 a month ago.

Typically, what Bitcoin does, altcoins follow. And when prices drop, Bitcoin is usually the more predictable, stable option. Traders will then ‘hedge’ against the risk of more volatile assets (think Dogecoin, Solana or even meme coins) and turn their eyes to more stable options such as Bitcoin, stocks or commodities.

So is Ethereum headed for a new moon or a doom? The prediction markets are divided, but perhaps these charts can help:

Ethereum (ETH) price: what the charts say

Ethereum has fallen in recent weeks after failing to stay above $3,800 in late October. The daily chart shows that the price is caught between a falling resistance trendline from the October high of $4,800 and a rising support trendline that has been present for most of 2025.

Currently, ETH is testing a $3,400 support zone, with plenty of volume in play. It rejected a big dip in October and was the rebound zone after a correction in early August.

The Relative Strength Index, or RSI, measures market momentum on a scale of 0 to 100. ETH’s RSI stands at 41.46 and is firmly in bearish territory. Below 50 means selling pressure dominates, and at 41 there is still plenty of room to fall before it becomes sufficiently oversold (to 30 or below) to attract bargain hunters.

The Average Directional Index, or ADX, measures trend strength regardless of direction. Values ​​above 25 confirm that there is a strong trend, while values ​​below 20 signal choppy, directionless action. ETH’s ADX stands at 32.66 – well into “strong trend” territory. Here’s the problem: the trend is bearish and this indicator suggests there is some belief behind it.

Exponential moving averages, or EMAs, track average prices over different time frames to identify trend direction. When the shorter 50-day EMA trades above the longer 200-day EMA, it typically indicates that the long-term uptrend remains intact and forms a ‘golden cross’ pattern.

Ethereum currently maintains this bullish stance – the only bright spot for bulls at the moment. However, ETH’s current price is below both EMAs, indicating short-term weakness despite the longer-term bullish structure. And the narrowing gap between the two indicates a potential “death cross” (the opposite of the golden cross) – which is a solid bearish indicator.

Why the bullish case might work

It’s not crazy to post numerous odds of 67% on ETH reaching $4K.

Fundamental support is being built up. Whales collected 1.64 million ETH in October – worth about $6.4 billion at current prices – despite a 7% monthly decline in the price of ETH.

Also, the upcoming Fusaka upgrade for Ethereum on December 3 will dramatically improve scalability, which is welcome news for the ETH maxes.

To realize the pump to $4K, ETH needs to break the falling resistance trendline around $3,600-$3,800. If the bulls can decisively break that ceiling, the path to $4,000 will open. The golden cross EMA setup provides a bullish foundation that could support a rally if macro conditions improve – for example, if the Fed signals dovish intentions or Bitcoin consolidates enough to allow an altcoin season.

Why the bearish case is more likely

This is where things get awkward for bulls. Multiple independent indicators follow bearish signals, and when that happens, traders listen.

The Squeeze Momentum Indicator identifies periods of low volatility (the “squeeze”) that typically precede explosive moves. When the squeeze motion “fires” or releases, it indicates which direction the explosive motion will go. ETH’s squeeze is showing a “bearish impulse”, which is now releasing downwards – like a compressed spring unwinding straight down. This is the same setup that preceded Bitcoin’s recent drop from $108,000, and is now trading for just under $102,000.

The Volume Profile Visible Range, or VPVP, shows where the most trading volume occurred. When the price trades below the control point (highest volume zone), it means sellers are in control. Traders who bought higher are now underwater and often become motivated sellers, adding to the downward pressure. ETH is currently under this control zone.

The chart structure shows problems for bulls. The price of ETH is currently testing the lower support at $3,400. When triangles break with this kind of momentum, they break hard. The October bearish trendline offers strong resistance around $3,600-$3,800, creating a formidable ceiling.

Bears have the edge

Whale accumulation is real and the EMA setup is technically bullish, but let’s be honest about what the charts are saying right now.

The bearish alignment is too strong: ADX confirms the strength of the downtrend at 32.66, RSI shows selling pressure at 41, Ichimoku structure is bearish both current and future, squeeze is moving down and VPVP is under control. When five independent indicators tell the same story, the probability matrix clearly favors one outcome.

That Myriad prediction market with a 79.1% chance that ETH won’t reach $5,000 in 2025? That’s probably the most realistic view of the situation.

The most likely path: a test and break of $3,400 support within the next few days, followed by a move towards the $2,800-$2,500 zone where the ascending support trendline and 200-day EMA could finally provide a bottom. That’s a 19-28% drop from here – painful, but not catastrophic in crypto terms.

The Whales who bought $6.4 billion in October will not reverse this next week. They are positioning themselves for a recovery in the first quarter of 2026, after the market first flushes out the weak hands. Sometimes the market needs to be reset before it can recover, and right now gravity has the advantage.

Important levels to watch:

• Immediate resistance: $3,600 (falling trendline)
• Strong resistance: $3,800 (former support zone)
• Immediate Support: $3,400 (Triangle Support/Current Combat Zone)
• Strong Support: $2,800 (Ascending Trendline and Psychological Level)