Jobs Data Blackout for Muddy Bitcoin Macro Readers as US Shutdown Ends

Bitcoin and the broader financial markets are flying blind after the White House confirmed that crucial October inflation and employment data will likely not be released, creating a macro overhang and further complicating the Federal Reserve’s policy decisions this year.

“Democrats may have permanently damaged the federal statistical system with the October CPI and jobs reports likely never being released,” White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said Wednesday. CNBC. “All that released economic data will be permanently tainted, blinding our policymakers at the Fed at a critical time.”

The White House placed the blame squarely on the longest-running U.S. government shutdown in its 236-year history, after Democrats called for an extension of tax credits that expire at the end of the year that would lower costs for the millions of Americans who rely on health care.

Late Wednesday, the House of Representatives past a bill to reopen the federal government, following a vote in the Senate on Monday. That measure has now been signed by President Donald Trump.

Still, the jobs data blackout has changed the broader market landscape, “increasing the importance and uncertainty surrounding the next release as it gives the data agency more ‘room to maneuver,’” Adam Chu, principal researcher at GreeksLive, told me. Declutter.

Bitcoin is down 1.1% over the past 24 hours and is trading at $102,100, according to CoinGecko data, continuing its 10% decline over the past week.

The increasing uncertainty is also visible in the prediction markets. Users on Myriad, owned by Declutter parent company Dastan have tempered their bullish expectations, with Bitcoin likely to reach $115,000 before $85,000 drop from 61.4% to 58.8% in one day.

This move now casts doubt on a possible rate cut in December, which analysts are already expecting earlier highlighted as crucial for shaping market expectations.

“December rate futures now factor in a 50% probability of a 25 basis point cut,” a significant decline from the previous market consensus, Chu noted.

Data interrupted. What now?

The confusion over October’s lost data has now flipped the script, creating a new set of challenges.

“In a data vacuum environment, the primary impact on macro-sensitive assets like Bitcoin is a sharp increase in uncertainty, which naturally increases volatility,” Tim Sun, senior researcher at HashKey, told me. Declutter.

The analyst expects trading to become “sentiment-driven, making it difficult for the market to maintain strong upward momentum.”

It also puts Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, who has often emphasized a data-driven approach, in a difficult position.

“The Fed is likely to shift to a risk-management stance,” Sun said, suggesting that “an overly aggressive stance could increase vulnerabilities and increase the likelihood of a policy error.”