Bybit’s 2026 Crypto Outlook argues that Bitcoin’s four-year cycle is fading as macro policies, derivatives markets and tokenization reshape crypto’s risk and return profile.
Summary
- Bybit’s Crypto Outlook 2026 claims that the traditional four-year Bitcoin cycle is weakening as macro policies and institutional flows take charge.
- The options markets estimate a 10.3% chance that Bitcoin will reach $150,000 by the end of 2026, while macro easing and BOJ risk drive volatility between the assets.
- The report highlights real asset tokenization, regulated stablecoins and quantum-driven infrastructure upgrades as core structural themes for 2026.
Bybit, the world’s second-largest cryptocurrency exchange by trading volume, has published its ‘2026 Crypto Outlook’, a research report that examines whether the long-standing four-year bitcoin cycle still explains market behavior in an era dominated by central banks, options firms and institutional allocators. The study leans on derivatives market data, option-implied probabilities, volatility trends, cross-asset correlations and global macro conditions to build a framework for how Bitcoin and the broader crypto market could trade through 2026.
A central question is whether the halving-anchored boom-and-bust pattern is still the market’s main compass. The report concludes that while historical cycles “remain relevant,” their dominance is fading as “macroeconomic policies, institutional participation and market structure play an increasing role in price formation.” In other words, traders can no longer view the halving as a mechanical timing tool; they now have to read the Federal Reserve, stock indexes and options books with the same intensity they once reserved for on-chain supply charts.
Macro, market and event risk
On the macro front, the outlook suggests that markets are pricing in further monetary easing by the US Federal Reserve, a move that “could support risky assets more broadly.” Bitcoin (BTC) has recently lagged US stocks, but the report highlights the potential for “renewed positive correlation between bitcoin and major stock indices” if policies remain accommodative and liquidity conditions remain friendly. This is consistent with the broader positioning of risky assets from 2026 onwards, when investors will return to growth and high-beta trades as expectations for rate cuts strengthen.
Derivatives markets add a second lens. Based on options data, the report finds an implied probability of 10.3% that bitcoin will trade at $150,000 by the end of 2026, stressing that these are “market prices rather than a forecast.” Bybit researchers argue that options markets may be “conservatively positioned relative to the broader macro and regulatory environment,” suggesting there is room for positive positioning if policy, ETF inflows or institutional mandates surprise the bullish side, echoing the dynamics seen following the adoption of spot bitcoin ETFs in early 2024.
The constructive tone is tempered by policy and event-induced risks. The report points to a looming MSCI decision in mid-January on a potential index exclusion for Strategy, warning that such an outcome “could impact market sentiment,” particularly for equity-linked crypto proxies. It also points to the possibility that the Bank of Japan will tighten policy later in 2026, a shift that could “introduce volatility across asset classes” as carry trades ease and global liquidity adjusts. Similar shocks from the BOJ’s policy changes in previous years have led to a reduction in risk between assets, which has also spread to bitcoin and major altcoins.
Structural themes: tokenization and quantum risk
In addition to cyclical factors, Bybit’s prospects rely heavily on structural changes. The report identifies real-world asset tokenization as a “key structural theme for 2026,” building on the “expansion of stablecoin adoption by regulated institutions in 2025.” This call follows recent moves by major payments companies and banks to launch or integrate regulated stablecoins, positioning tokenized treasuries and on-chain money funds as a core part of the next DeFi cycle.
The study also underlines an industry-wide push to strengthen crypto market infrastructure, highlighting “emerging technology risks such as those associated with advances in quantum computing.” While quantum threats remain largely theoretical in the near term, the report sees them as a catalyst for improved cryptography, custody standards, and resilience at the protocol level, especially for high-value chains anchoring tokenization, stablecoins, and institutional flows.
Ultimately, the “2026 Crypto Outlook” concludes that while “market cycles, sentiment and volatility remain defining features of crypto markets,” their interaction is evolving as institutional participation, regulatory involvement and macro support give digital assets more room to deviate from historical patterns – even as uncertainty and episodic shocks remain part of the landscape. The full Bybit x Block Scholes report, available for download, provides the underlying data and methodology behind these claims.
