Gold and silver just hit new all-time highs as investors flee government debt. Research from Bitwise argues that this “gold first, Bitcoin later” rotation could trigger a delayed, parabolic BTC rally over the next four to seven months.
Summary
- Gold broke to record highs and silver set a new market cap peak as macro stress and Fed-related scandals push capital into hard assets before it ends up in Bitcoin.
- Bitwise’s André Dragosch says Granger tests show gold is 4 to 7 months ahead of Bitcoin, while Matt Hougan notes that BTC ETFs have absorbed more than 100% of new supply since 2024.
- Options data from Deribit shows traders continuing high-strike BTC calls with long volatility structures through March 2026, targeting upside moves that could mirror gold’s 65% rise in 2025.
Global precious metals markets reached unprecedented levels this week, with gold and silver breaking previous record highs, according to market data and industry analysts who suggest the performance could signal a potential Bitcoin rally.
The gold vs. Bitcoin rally debate continues into 2026
Gold crossed a psychological threshold per ounce, according to Gold Price data, while silver crossed a significant level, sending its market capitalization to an all-time high for the first time. Industry experts predict possible further increases in gold prices.
The rise in hard assets reflects investors’ move away from sovereign debt amid growing global macroeconomic uncertainty, according to market observers.
Bitcoin surpassed its highest level of the year during the same period, although its movement appeared more muted compared to precious metals.
André Dragosch, head of research at Bitwise Europe, stated that the gold price is a leading indicator for the cryptocurrency market. Through statistical causality testing, Dragosch has shown that gold tends to anticipate Bitcoin’s movements with a lag of four to seven months.
This pattern of “Gold to Bitcoin Rotation” suggests that institutional capital is moving to digital assets after initially taking refuge in gold, once risk appetite stabilizes, according to Dragosch’s analysis.
Analyst Sminston noted that while gold is in a “parabolic price discovery” phase, Bitcoin is only in the early stages of a corresponding shift.
Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise, compared the current Bitcoin market to the 2025 gold rally. Hougan explained that gold’s parabolic rally was the result of supply depletion after years of massive central bank buying.
Since spot Bitcoin ETFs launched in the United States in January 2024, these instruments have purchased more than 100 percent of new supply, according to Hougan. He stated that while the price is capped by sales from long-term holders, Bitcoin could experience a vertical revaluation once these sellers exhaust their holdings, similar to what happened with gold.
Recent criminal investigations involving top Federal Reserve management have reportedly damaged the dollar’s stability. Market analysts note that gold responds immediately as a primary safe haven, while Bitcoin attracts capital after initial market shocks are absorbed.
On Deribit, traders are betting on high strikes for March and higher strikes in subsequent months, according to options market data. Analysts point to short-term targets for Bitcoin significantly above current levels, should the historical correlation with gold hold. This would represent a percentage gain comparable to the performance of silver, which, according to market analysts, has historically tended to outperform gold in the late stages of bullish physical commodity markets.
