Coinbase Preps Prediction Market, Tokenized Equity Launch for December 17: Report

Coinbase is preparing to launch a prediction market and tokenized shares on December 17, according to a Bloomberg report Thursday.

The exchange has previously discussed entering these markets, but has not yet formally announced the products. Screenshots shared on X over the past few weeks appeared to show early versions of the features, with the Kalshi prediction market looking to strengthen Coinbase’s own prediction offering.

Coinbase representatives pointed to a livestream event scheduled for December 17 when they previously discussed the leaks. Coinbase did not immediately respond to a request for comment following the Thursday report.

This move comes as the prediction markets see an increase in adoption. Trading volume reached $28 billion this year through October studies suggest that these markets outperform traditional election polls by about 30%. The U.S. predictive analytics industry is valued at approximately $14 billion, and is expected to grow to $32.85 billion by 2030.

Competitors are also expanding their offerings. Twin approval assured this week to introduce its own prediction markets, while Crypto.com partners with Trump Media & Technology Group Corp. to support similar initiatives.

In the US, leading platform Polymarket was forced out of the market in 2022 under a Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) settlement for failing to register as a derivatives exchange. The CFTC approved it will return in November following the acquisition of QCEX, a CFTC-regulated exchange and clearinghouse.

But the sector is under increased supervision. State regulators have begun issuing bans, including one from the Washington State Gambling Commission earlier this week to declare prediction brings an “illicit activity” to market. The committee said it is monitoring the ongoing battle in federal and state courts that will determine the legal status of the markets.

At the federal level, lawmakers continue to focus on political betting, which is one of the most popular verticals in prediction markets besides sports. Representatives Jamie Raskin and Andrea Salinas introduced last December’s election gambling ban law, amid an estimated $930 million in bets on the 2024 election on major platforms.

Senator Jeff Merkley has warned that betting on elections opens the door to corruption and undermines democratic processes. Internationally, several countries, including Taiwan, already ban election betting.

Polymarket has also faced accusations of volume inflated by laundry business. In November, researchers estimated that as many as a quarter of transactions on the site could be artificial.

Amid regulatory uncertainty, major fintech and crypto companies – Kalshi, Crypto.com, Coinbase, Robinhood and Underdog – announced the formation of the Coalition for Prediction Markets (CPM) on Thursday. The group wants to advocate for transparent access to federally supervised prediction markets as adoption accelerates and state casino regulators exercise oversight traditionally handled at the federal level.

“From day one, we wanted to be regulated. We have worked with the CFTC for years because prediction markets must operate with strong federal safeguards that prevent insider trading, protect consumers, and ensure these markets remain transparent and free from corruption,” said Sara Slane, Coalition board member and head of business development at Kalshi, in a statement statement.

“Americans deserve clarity, not 50 conflicting interpretations,” she added. “As the first federally regulated prediction market, Kalshi saw firsthand how quickly this space was growing – and how urgently a unified industry voice was needed to advocate for access and consistency across the country.”