Bull or bear? Today’s $106k retest could decide Bitcoin’s fate

Bitcoin has considered $106,400 as a pivot in the current cycle, acting as both resistance and support.

Price has repeatedly clustered close to the level, passing on retests and expanding into the next channel bands, while breaks below the level often required a repair phase before any progress could be made.

My charts below show price channels that have been the most influential on Bitcoin since early 2024, with $106,400 marked by the solid yellow line.

In mid-December 2024, the price broke through $106,000 for the first time, following a steady rise from areas below $100,000. Once the level was passed, the price fell to $107,800 before a retest of $106,400 failed and fell back to the mid-$90,000s.

By the end of January 2025, a similar pattern was in place, with more padding. Bitcoin reached $106,400 from the bottom and then stalled. The follow-through took the intraday price to the $108,300 range before the retest failed again.

Even with noise within the channel grid, the inflection at $106,400 organized the action, with the market repeatedly checking the level before moving back down. The consistency of this behavior across weeks makes the line useful for risk management.

At the end of May 2025, the relationship changed. The price tested $106,400 twice from below and then twice more from above before using this level as support several more times.

The bounces went to $111,900 and $110,300 before momentum faded on the sixth retest and a decline began.

During this period, $106,400 acted like a floor. As long as the close remained above it, sellers failed to squeeze the next lower bands in size. When that bottom finally gave way at the end of the month, the recovery took longer, reinforcing the idea that losing the pivot changes the pace.

June 2025 again illustrated the support and resistance function.

After falling below the level mid-month and then being rejected four more times (with one intraday breakout above), Bitcoin ultimately reclaimed $106,400 by month’s end, hitting multiple intraday highs and pushing through to $108,300 and $109,400.

The response after each retest was orderly, which is typical of respecting a much-watched pivot. Traders waiting on the line for confirmation were given explicit invalidations if the price fell back to $106,400, and clear targets in the higher bands if the price held.

This caused Bitcoin to enter price discovery territory, eventually reaching its cycle high of $126,000. We didn’t see $106,400 retested until Trump’s $19 billion trade tariff dropped on October 10.

The series from October to early November 2025 shows the other side.

A decisive drop from higher levels dropped to $106,400 before rising again towards $115,000. Bitcoin has attempted to hold the pivot several times, and at the time of writing, it is about to mark its eighth test.

So far, every time $106,400 has been tested since we hit $126,000, the price has immediately returned to $110,000 – $115,000.

Ominously, Bitcoin has never touched $106,400 after eight retests.

These repeated interactions are important because they compress a complex set of variables into a single reference.

$106,400 corresponds to the midpoint of the current channel pack on the displayed framework, meaning it is near a fair value axis where both buyers and sellers find liquidity.

When the price is accepted above this level, the path of least resistance shifts to the next higher cluster. When the price rejects or loses its level, the market often has to rebuild participation below before buyers regain control.

The pattern in the screenshots can be summarized as follows.

For traders who map decisions into levels, the playbook is simple.

When the price breaks above $106,400 and is confirmed on retest, attention naturally shifts to the next overhead clusters around $107,800, $108,300, $109,400 and $110,500, which align with the dashed yellow rungs on the ladder shown.

When the price goes through the pivot again, the focus returns to the bottom of the stack around $105,500, $104,500 and $103,800, where the market has repeatedly found liquidity during crises.

This framework does not predict direction; it defines areas where execution quality tends to improve and where invalidation is unequivocal.

This level also helps reconcile conflicting signals of momentum or financing.

During periods when momentum is reversing but the price is still above $106,400, the path to higher bands often remains open as long as the pivot holds.

During periods when derivative positioning appears busy but the market cannot regain its levels, the onus remains on buyers until adoption returns. The result is a practical approach to managing exposure without overemphasizing short-term indicators.

None of these assigns special status to any single number, apart from its repeated use in the current structure. Markets evolve and pivots migrate as distributions shift.

However, the charted channels have been showing intraday support and resistance levels for almost two years at this point.

The value of $106,400 lies in the tape that keeps coming back to it, the reactions that form around it, and the clarity it provides for planning the next transaction.

So $106,400 seems to be functioning as the cycle’s balance point, and price continues to treat it accordingly.