Bubblemaps rejected claims linking a Polymarket bet on Maduro’s removal to a WLFI co-founder, calling the chain’s logic specious.
Summary
- Bubblemaps said the timing of the exchange and value matching alone cannot prove wallet ownership or coordination.
- The company identified multiple alternative wallet matches based on the same assumptions.
- There is currently no evidence linking the Polymarket trader to WLFI or its founders.
Speculation surrounding a high-profile Polymarket trade has escalated into claims of political and crypto insider ties, but Bubblemaps says the logic behind these accusations does not hold up.
In a January 5 after on
Why the insider link gained traction
The controversy stems from a Polymarket forecast asking whether the Venezuelan president will be removed from power by a certain deadline. In the hours before reports of Maduro’s arrest surfaced, several newly created accounts placed aggressive “Yes” bets, turning about $60,000 into more than $630,000.
One wallet attracted particular attention after turning about $32,000 into almost $400,000. Traces on the chain showed that the account was funded through Coinbase deposits to Solana (SOL) and Ethereum (ETH), prompting speculation that the trader had access to non-public information.
An on-chain analyst later claimed that the funding wallet could be linked to WLFI via a Coinbase deposit of approximately 250 SOL that resembled another transfer allegedly linked to WLFI-associated wallets and ENS/SNS domains pointing to the name ‘Steven Charles’.
Bubble maps: the evidence is weak
Bubblemaps rejected this conclusion outright, warning that timing-based wallet matching is beyond its limits.
According to the company, a one-day period between deposits in and out of an exchange doesn’t make sense, especially if only a single asset is being considered. When other assets like USDC and ETH are included, Bubblemaps said it has identified about two dozen portfolios that fit the same pattern with the same time window and value range.
This needs to stop
Polymarket insider analysis is out of hand
Some posts are linking the Maduro’s Polymarket insider to a WLFI cofounder
It sounds explosive, but the logic is weak 🧵 pic.twitter.com/Jnwhm6zdi7
— Bubblemaps (@bubblemaps) January 5, 2026
The company also noted that currency deposits can come from bank transfers, multiple smaller transactions, or older balances consolidated long after initial funding, factors ignored in the viral claims.
“Calling this a 99% match is clickbait,” Bubblemaps said, adding that shared exchange paths and similar naming conventions do not establish ownership or coordination of wallets.
While the timing of the Polymarket transactions remains unusual, Bubblemaps emphasizes that poor analytical discipline can lead to almost any conclusion if the framing is aggressive enough.
The company urged the crypto community to separate credible on-chain evidence from drama-driven stories, especially when it comes to politically sensitive events and high-profile projects.
To date, neither Polymarket nor WLFI have disclosed internal findings and no formal investigation has been announced
