In short
- The profit/loss margin for recent Bitcoin buyers reached -25%, a level that has marked a local low four times since the 2023 bull run.
- Long-term holders have distributed 1.78 million BTC since July, while short-term holders have amassed a nearly identical 1.8 million BTC.
- This shift in cohort behavior is a normal wealth transfer at the end of the cycle, and not a structural top, which increases price fragility in the short term, Decrypt was told.
Bitcoin’s drop to $85,800 on Monday shows that both new big investors and long-term holders are driving the sell-off that has been putting pressure on prices for months.
Unrealized losses for entities that have accumulated more than 1,000 BTC in the past 155 days have reached levels not seen since 2023. Old whales, who have held large interests for longer, continue to make profits.
The profit/loss margin for wallets that bought Bitcoin in the past three months is now up -25%, according to data from an on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant. Declines in the range of -12% to -37% have historically served as markers of a bull run reversal.
“New whales submerging do not automatically imply forced selling. Capitulation risk increases if Bitcoin loses key cost basis levels for recent buyers, especially around ETF or institutional entry zones,” Shivam Thakral, CEO of Indian crypto exchange BuyUCoin, told reporters. Declutter.
A sharp macroeconomic shock would be the most likely catalyst for defensive selling, he added.
However, sell-side pressure is not uniform across all investor cohorts. There is a clear difference between long-term and short-term holders.
The 30-day net position change for short-term holders – investors who typically hold assets for less than six months – has reached +768,000 BTC as of Monday, a sign of accumulation.
Conversely, the same metric shows that long-term holders have a net position change of -755,000 BTC, indicating distribution.
Since July 2025, the supply from long-term holders has fallen by approximately 1.78 million BTC to 13.68 million BTC.
Contrary to the assumption that newer investors are selling en masse, the supply from short-term holders increased by approximately 1.8 million BTC to 6.28 million BTC over the same period.
“The shift from long-term to short-term holdings is a normal feature of late-cycle bull markets, reflecting profit-taking and capital rotation rather than outright stress,” Thakral said. “Unlike previous cycles, demand today is broader and more institutional, with ETFs and corporate balance sheets absorbing supply.”
“This looks less like a structural summit and more like a classic wealth transfer phase,” he added.
While this rotation increases price fragility in the short term, it often lays the groundwork for consolidation before the next move higher, the analyst noted.
According to CoinGecko data, the top crypto has fallen by almost 4% in 24 hours.
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