Bitcoin’s long four -year cycle, as soon as a dominant framework for predicting price movements, starts to lose its influence, according to Bitwise Cio Matt Hougan.
In a July 25 after On X pointed Hougan that the ripening nature of the cryptomarkt, in combination with increasing institutional involvement, weakened the forces that were the cyclical behavior of Bitcoin historically.
Why Bitcoin’s 4-year cycle is dead
According to Hougan, Bitcoin Halvings once played a crucial role in stimulating supply shocks and refueling the bull markets, their influence has been taken.
He also noted that the wider macro environment has also been shifted. Interest rates no longer exert the same downward pressure on crypto markets as in earlier cycles.
Hougan added that clearer regulatory structures come up in the crypto industry. This, in combination with greater institutional supervision, has contributed to reducing extreme volatility and the collapsing risk that once plagued the market.
According to Hougan, the crypto landscape is now evolving longer and more strategic. The assets flows to Spot Bitcoin ETFs, which started seriously in 2024, is expected to continue in the coming decade.
In the meantime, traditional financial institutions, from pension funds to national account platforms, are just starting to offer crypto access to their customers.
In addition, legislative support, such as the recent passage of the Genius ACT, continues the access of Wall Street in space, making it the scene for persistent capital inflow.
Aged
This sentiment is reflect By cryptoquant CEO Ki Young Ju, who recently ran Bearish calls back on the basis of the old cycle model.
In April, Ju warned that the Bitcoin rally had reached a highlight near $ 80,000, but the active continued his climb and finally exceeded $ 123,000 this month.
Thinking about that Miss, Ju stated that the traditional dynamics for accumulation distribution-where whales in the retail sales-no longer applies. Instead, institutional investors and company treasures come to the fore as the dominant buyers, who reduce market behavior and reduce speculative churn.
What is the next step for Bitcoin?
As a result, these deeper structural shifts are long -term assumptions about Bitcoin challenging.
Given this, Hougan suggested that the market is leaving tree-bustcycli to more consistent, long-term growth.
Although he recognizes the potential for short -term volatility, he sees 2026 as a year of strong performance driven by permanent adoption trends instead of reflexive market patterns.
