For over a decade, October has been one of the easiest months for Bitcoin to be bullish.
Historically, it has delivered an average gain of around 22.5%, helped by post-summer liquidity, year-end portfolio positioning and, more recently, steady demand for US investment products.
Confidence in that pattern was therefore high again this year. And true to form, Bitcoin set a new record above $126,000 in the first week of the month, as traders quickly revived the well-known “Uptober” slogan.
However, a sudden sell-off wiped out these early gains within days, and unlike tech stocks and other risky assets, Bitcoin has never been able to regain its value.
This resulted in the month closing lower, the meme failing and the market being reminded that slogans do not absorb supply.
Echoes of 2018
What makes this October remarkable is how closely it rhymes with 2018.
At the time, October did not collapse, it simply stopped rising. As the usual seasonal tailwinds faded, November and December turned sharply lower, with Bitcoin losing more than 36% in November alone.
The conclusion was simple: when a historically strong month fails to lift prices, underlying weakness is already at play. That weakness could stem from oversupply, declining demand or even tighter macroeconomic conditions.
This year has a similar undertone. The calendar did not stop working. Instead, the market came into October exhausted.
After a strong first three quarters, traders were heavily positioned, liquidity was uneven, and long-term holders began cashing in on their gains at any sign of strength.
Why did the Bitcoin price fall in October?
On-chain data explains most of why the Bitcoin price struggled in October.
Facts from blockchain analytics platform Glassnode showed that long-term BTC holders have been steadily issuing coins since mid-July, increasing realized sales from around $1 billion per day to between $2 billion and $3 billion per day in early October.
It was noted:
“Filtering by age cohort shows that 6 to 12 million holders accounted for more than 50% of the recent selling pressure, especially during the late stages of the top formation. At around $126,000 ATH, their spend exceeded $648 million/day (7D-SMA); more than 5x their baseline earlier in 2025.”
Crucially, this division was not a panic spike like previous capitulation events. It happened gradually, persistently, selling with every show of force.
According to the company, many of the coins came from wallets purchased for between $70,000 and $96,000, resulting in an average cost of almost $93,000.
This suggests that this move looks more like profit-taking after a strong year than recession fears.
At the same time, Bitcoin’s poor performance was exacerbated by the fact that the buy side thinned significantly in October.
In its weekly report, crypto analytical platform CryptoQuant reports noted a noticeable slowdown in US investor interest in spot markets, ETFs and futures following the late September rally.
ETF inflows cooled significantly to less than 1,000 BTC/day, which was significantly lower than the average of more than 2,500 BTC/day at the start of the major rallies of this cycle.
Moreover, spot exchange premiums narrowed and the futures basis retreated.
Moreno noted that these were signals that the marginal U.S. buyer was taking a step back as long-term holders ramped up their sales.
Meanwhile, the macro backdrop also strengthened resistance.
This year has been dominated by trade frictions – especially between the US and China – and flare-ups in the Middle East. The Federal Reserve has also continued to implement restrictive policies, keeping global dollar liquidity tight.
Given all this, platform Kronos is investigating framed the October pullback was seen as a “liquidity squeeze, not a trend reversal,” noting that Bitcoin still behaved like a relative flight to safety even as long leveraged positions were washed away.
What’s next for BTC?
The uncomfortable parallel for bulls is that the last red October preceded a difficult end to the year.
In 2018, the loss of seasonal support was followed by lower liquidity, a more decisive distribution of long-term shareholders, and buyers waiting several steps lower.
However, today’s market is healthier because the investor base is larger, stablecoin liquidity is greater, and regulated products now offer a slower and more stable bid that simply didn’t exist seven years ago.
Considering this, Timothy Misir, head of research at BRN, described the current setup as a market that “recalibrates and doesn’t collapse,” adding that institutional accumulation continues beneath the surface as long as Bitcoin remains above the $107,000-$110,000 zone.
Still, October’s print changes the conversation. When Bitcoin cannot rise in the month it usually rises, the onus shifts to the bulls.
The last two months of the year will likely be defined less by Uptober memes and more by whether long-term holders’ spending drops to $1 billion a day and whether U.S. ETF outflows accelerate again.
If supply remains high and regulated bidding remains low, 2025 could mirror 2018 with a choppy, frustrating end to the year. However, as money flows return and geopolitics settles down, October will ultimately look less like the start of a recession and more like a short, orderly transfer from older holders to new ones.
