VanEck’s base case for 2050 sees Bitcoin increasing 15% annually to ~$2.9 million, handling up to 10% of global trade and reaching 2.5% of central bank reserves as a monetary hedge.
Summary
- VanEck analysts predict that Bitcoin could earn an average annual return of 15% over 25 years, pushing its price to around $2.9 million per coin by 2050.
- Their base case assumes that Bitcoin handles 5 to 10% of global trade payments and grows to a non-government reserve of about 2.5% of central bank reserves.
- The report describes Bitcoin as a long-term hedge against monetary regime risks, with scenarios ranging from a bear case of ~$130,000 to a hyper-bull outcome above $50 million.
Global asset manager VanEck has issued a long-term forecast predicting that Bitcoin could represent up to 10% of global trade and 2.5% of central bank reserves by 2050, according to a recent company report.
VanEck analysts Matthew Sigel and Patrick Bush stated in the report that Bitcoin could reach these levels assuming an average annual return of 15% over the next 25 years. The analysts predicted that Bitcoin could represent between 5% and 10% of global trade payments and around 2.5% of central bank reserves within that time frame.
According to the analysts, the report characterized Bitcoin as a long-term hedge against monetary systemic risks and not as a tactical asset.
“Bitcoin is not a tactical asset; it functions as a long-term hedge against the negative consequences of a monetary regime,” the report said.
Bitcoin has experienced volatility in recent trading periods, although long-term price forecasts from several analysts have remained positive. VanEck’s projections include multiple scenarios, ranging from pessimistic to very optimistic valuations.
The report suggests that the cryptocurrency could strengthen its strategic role as a monetary hedge as adoption increases among central banks and international trading participants, the VanEck analysts said.
VanEck, a global investment management company, has been active in cryptocurrency investment products and market analysis. The company’s 2050 projections represent one of several long-term valuations of Bitcoin, which include seven-figure price targets from various market participants.
