Bitcoin Is About to Break Out of Death Cross: Here’s What That Means

The new year has started with a bang – and one that initially had nothing to do with crypto. When U.S. Delta Force operators dragged Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro from his fortified complex in Caracas on January 3, chaos erupted in financial markets. Gold soared above $4,400 an ounce, the S&P 500 rallied on tech momentum and Bitcoin finally broke free after weeks of being stuck in a suffocating range.

Today’s price action shows BTC trading at $93,958, up 2.69% on the day. But this is not about the percentage gain. It’s where that price is: above the 200-day exponential moving average for the first time since October. If the trend continues, Bitcoin could break away from the “death cross” formation it painted on the charts in November.

That’s a big problem for traders who have seen Bitcoin struggle through what was supposed to be a triumphant year under Donald Trump’s crypto-friendly administration.

Despite a pretty bullish first semester last year, Bitcoin finished with a negative 6% performance in 2025. After a 125% rally in 2024, which pushed BTC above $100,000, the market sold off the news when Trump actually took office. All these policy and regulatory shifts were already priced in by the end of 2024, and 2025 ultimately became the usual “buy the rumor, sell the news” scenario, leaving crypto investors to suffer losses while gold and silver posted their best years since 1979.

Traditional safe havens have been crushed, while Bitcoin – the so-called “digital gold” – is struggling to hold $90,000. The geopolitical backdrop has left the markets in a mixed bag. With Maduro being held in the Metropolitan Detention Center in Brooklyn, oil markets are in FUD mode and investors are rushing for anything that resembles a hedge against chaos.

But the thing about chaos is: it cuts both ways. The same geopolitical uncertainty that drives institutional money into gold also reminds crypto natives why Bitcoin was invented in the first place. When governments can arrest sitting heads of state in night raids and declare that they will “run” entire countries, the idea of ​​an asset that governments cannot easily seize or control starts to look quite attractive again.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price: The Pressure Finally Breaks

Bitcoin had been tightening for weeks, trading in a narrow band between $85,000 and $90,000. Today, the price gave in to the upside, starting the week at $91,498 and peaking to the current price of $93,925 with no upside wicks. Today’s candlestick is strong and has no wick in the entire body, decisively breaking its main resistance.

For the first time since October, Bitcoin is trading above the 200-day exponential moving average. That’s the line that separates the longer-term bullish structure from the bearish drift. If you’re above it, you’re technically in “uptrend” territory. When you’re underneath it, you’re fighting gravity. The market has been fighting gravity for months. Today is the first day since then that that hasn’t been the case.

Exponential moving averages, or EMAs, help traders identify trend direction by tracking the average price of an asset over the short, medium and long term. And here’s the thing: Bitcoin’s EMA setup is still bearish.

When the short-term 50-day EMA falls below the longer-term 200-day EMA, it means the bears are in control and the longer-term bull market structure has been broken. That’s known among traders as a death cross formation, and Bitcoin has been one since mid-November.

But for what it’s worth, general technical indicators that traders typically rely on may offer some optimism: The Average Directional Index, or ADX, is at 21.3, indicating that the current downtrend is now weaker. ADX measures trend strength regardless of direction, and readings below 25 generally indicate choppy, directionless action with false breakouts common.

The Relative Strength Index, or RSI, measures market momentum on a scale of 0 to 100, with readings below 30 indicating oversold and above 70 indicating overbought. With a price of 65.6, Bitcoin shows buying momentum without being overbought. Right now, Bitcoin is in a sweet spot where momentum is building but has not yet reached the level of depletion that typically leads to profit taking.

What does all this technical jargon actually mean for your portfolio?

It means we are at a turning point. The compression that has built up in recent weeks has taken a positive turn. The 200-day moving average has recovered. If – and this is a big if – the market can string together a few daily closes above $95,000 with a rising ADX, then Bitcoin could escape its death cross formation and establish a so-called “golden cross.”

That’s when the 50-day EMA crosses the 200-day, a pattern that traders view as a key bullish signal for continued uptrends.