By 2028, Bitcoin could face serious security and price pressures if it fails to adopt quantum-resistant cryptography. Charles Edwards warns that delays beyond 2026 risk a prolonged bear market and confidence shock.
Summary
- Charles Edwards says quantum computers could crack Bitcoin’s elliptic curve cryptography in about three to five years, exposing private keys and on-chain funds.
- He argues that Bitcoin needs a “quantum patch” by 2026, otherwise BTC could fall below recent levels and remain under pressure until the network is upgraded, potentially triggering a record bear market.
- Critics say quantum technology is still early and point to banks and governments adopting post-quantum standards first, while others counter that Bitcoin’s irreversible transactions make Bitcoin a prime early target.
Bitcoin could face significant price pressure if cryptographic upgrades are delayed to address emerging quantum computing threats, according to warnings from industry participants, as financial institutions accelerate the adoption of post-quantum encryption standards.
Charles Edwards, founder of quantitative Bitcoin and digital asset fund Capriole said in a post on social media platform X on Wednesday that quantum risk could become critical in 2028. Edwards argued that Bitcoin must achieve quantum resistance within that time frame to avoid serious implications for security and price stability.
Bitcoin’s quantum questions still linger
The concern centers on quantum computing’s potential ability to break commonly used cryptographic systems. For Bitcoin, this could expose private keys tied to public addresses, allowing attackers to access funds or compromise data, according to technical assessments.
Edwards linked the technical challenge to market behavior and warned that failure to implement a solution by 2028 could result in Bitcoin trading remaining below recent levels and under pressure until the issue is resolved. He indicated that an effective quantum patch should be implemented by 2026 to prevent the network from being destabilized, according to his statements.
Delays beyond that point could trigger a prolonged bear market driven by declining confidence, Edwards said. He suggested that meaningful action would likely only occur after a significant market decline forced the issue.
Some observers argue that quantum technology is still too immature to pose a risk in the near term, noting that banks, governments and large institutions would likely be targeted first, giving Bitcoin time to adapt.
Edwards disputed this view, arguing that Bitcoin could be an early target due to its design features. He noted that many banks and institutions are already migrating to post-quantum encryption standards, while Bitcoin continues to rely on existing cryptographic assumptions. He also pointed out that fraudulent transactions in the traditional financial sector can often be reversed or blocked, while Bitcoin transactions are irreversible once confirmed, potentially increasing the impact of a breach.
Opinions across the cryptocurrency ecosystem remain divided on the urgency of the quantum threat to Bitcoin. Some participants argue that interim measures already exist to reduce exposure in the coming years, allowing time to design and implement more comprehensive protocol-level upgrades.
Others argue that quantum computing is still too underdeveloped to pose a meaningful risk to Bitcoin’s cryptography, and view heightened concerns as premature. The contrasting views reflect unresolved tensions within the Bitcoin community regarding the timeline and need for cryptographic upgrades.
