Bitcoin’s 2025 decline has analysts monitoring an RSI signal for the copper-gold ratio, declining whale sales, and a potential gold-silver rotation, as fears of 2026 crypto winter persist.
Summary
- Analyst Lark Davis highlights a pattern of Bitcoin recovering after the copper-gold ratio (RSI) bottoms out again, with the situation reappearing during the latest BTC drawdown.
- On-chain data shows 2025 whale sales and long-term holder outflows cooled in December, but institutional flows remain negative and sentiment is stuck in extreme fear territory.
- Commentators warn that another crypto winter could extend into 2026, even as some expect profit-taking from gold and silver and a new macro liquidity wave will eventually tip over into BTC.
A cryptocurrency analyst has identified a potential correlation between the copper-gold ratio and Bitcoin’s price movements, suggesting the digital asset could be positioned for recovery in 2026.
Crypto analyst Lark Davis noted that Bitcoin price increases have historically occurred when the copper-gold ratio relative strength index (RSI) retests its low range, according to an analysis published by The Coin Republic. The pattern reportedly manifested itself during Bitcoin’s recent price drop.
Crypto Market Data vs. Metals
Market data shows that large Bitcoin holders, commonly referred to as whales, sold significant amounts of the cryptocurrency in 2025. The outflow of long-term holder addresses soared in December but has since slowed, according to on-chain data.
The decline in long-term shareholder outflows could ease selling pressure, although analysts note that a sustained recovery would require greater demand from institutional and large investors. Recent market data shows that whale activity remains subdued and institutional flows are negative.
Some market observers have expressed concerns about the prolonged weakness in the cryptocurrency market. A recent analysis from Barron suggested that the market may be experiencing a crypto winter that could last into 2026. Historical crypto winters have been characterized by weak demand, falling prices and reduced on-chain activity.
The possibility of a prolonged downturn would contradict predictions of a super cycle and indicate that the four-year market cycle remains intact. Market sentiment indicators are currently showing extreme levels of fear.
Analysts have also noted that liquidity from profit-taking in the gold and silver markets could potentially translate into cryptocurrency assets, although this remains speculative. Gold and silver have seen recent rallies.
Bitcoin is trading within a narrow range as market participants attempt to create directional momentum. Market uncertainty has led many investors to take a wait-and-see approach until clearer trends emerge, market observers said.
The cryptocurrency market may experience new dynamics in January 2026, although prevailing uncertainty continues to influence investor behavior.
