Bitcoin, Ethereum and XRP are bleeding as traders consider the end of the four-year cycle

While some market observers believe the traditional four-year crypto cycle is about to be broken, analysts said Declutter this week that they believe some traders are still following the classic rule book – and selling due to the expectation of falling prices ahead.

That cohort may be partly responsible for crypto’s weekly decline Bitcoin down by more than 9%, Ethereum a decrease of 6%, and XRP with a 15% plunge, with some altcoins falling even worse. Cryptocurrency prices fell last Friday due to President Trump’s latest threat of Chinese tariffs, which led to a record $19 billion in daily liquidations, and have fallen further this week.

Historically, Bitcoin’s price movements have followed a four-year cycle, often skyrocketing a year after the halving. four-year reduction in rewards for BTC miners that is baked into Bitcoin’s code and crashes shortly afterwards.

With Bitcoin setting a then-record price of $67,000 in November 2021 before falling in the following months, this should mean the cycle is coming to an end soon. And some traders may be betting on that outcome.

“I think part of the sell-off is due to a group of market participants sticking to the four-year cycle,” said Matthew Nay, research analyst at Messaritold Declutter. “If you look at the timing, it’s been almost exactly four years since we surpassed the last cycle, and when you add in the uncertainty about the trade war, they can defend their positions more aggressively.”

Jonathan Morgan, the chief crypto analyst at the trading app Stock twitsadded that this is likely the result of “mechanical selling” from traders who simply buy and sell based on the expectation of a four-year cycle.

“A lot of retail still uses the old script: buy before the halving, sell when things don’t go well,” says Jasper De Maere, agency strategist at Wintermutetold Declutter. “If BTC underperforms after the halving, it will shake their conviction and you will get forced selling.”

“But in my opinion that strategy is outdated,” he added. “The halving just doesn’t move the needle anymore; the rewards for miners are small compared to the total trading volume.”

De Maere is not alone in this line of thinking. For example, Messari’s Nay said his personal belief is that Bitcoin could return to record highs before the end of the year. Other analysts told earlier Declutter that they expect the cycle to be broken, thanks in part to growing Wall Street and institutional adoption, along with a trend-breaking new high price set before last year’s halving.

Cycle skeptics argue that the crypto landscape has evolved due to convergence with traditional finance, the growing value and importance of altcoins, and the reduced impact miners have on Bitcoin’s supply. It’s just not the same industry anymore.

“I respect anyone who has structure, but the halving model is actually an echo of a younger market,” said Morgan of Stocktwits. “When miner rewards dictated supply, it mattered. Now ETFs, institutional flows and derivatives dwarf that effect.”

There are also a plethora of other factors to consider when parsing crypto’s recent decline. For example, last week, the largest liquidation event in crypto history took place on the back of President Trump reigniting his own trade war with China.

“Personally, I think it will for a while [the four-year cycle] is an interesting concept,” De Maere added, “the key drivers once used to explain the dynamics of the four-year cycle have just become more irrelevant as BTC and our entire space matures.”