Fidelity’s Parth Gargava says Bitcoin could shift into a supercycle, with demand for ETFs, friendlier US policies and market maturation dampening the classic boom-bust-halving pattern.
Summary
- Parth Gargava of Fidelity Labs argues that Bitcoin may be transitioning from its historic four-year halving cycle into a “super cycle” of longer highs and shallower declines.
- Gargava cites three factors: continued inflows into ETFs, pro-crypto US policies reducing regulatory overhang, and Bitcoin’s growing decorrelation with the S&P 500 and metals.
- He stops short of declaring the cycle dead, saying 2026 will tell whether Bitcoin repeats its post-halving peak-and-crash template or maintains structurally higher levels.
Bitcoin may be transitioning from its traditional four-year cycle into an extended “super cycle” characterized by prolonged price highs and less severe price declines, a Fidelity Labs executive said.
Fidelity Labs gives their crypto outlook
Parth Gargava, managing partner at Fidelity Labs, made the comments in Fidelity’s Jan. 9 2026 crypto outlook video, outlining a potential shift in the cryptocurrency’s market behavior driven by structural changes in demand.
Bitcoin has historically followed a four-year cycle pattern closely tied to halving events, with price spikes occurring about 18 months after each halving, Gargava said. The 2016 halving preceded a peak in December 2017, while the 2020 halving was followed by a new peak in 2021, the presentation shows.
The most recent halving took place in April 2024, sparking debate among market participants as to whether Bitcoin has already reached its cyclical peak or whether market dynamics have fundamentally changed.
“On the other hand, you also see a lot of arguments about how we could end up in a super cycle, contrary to what we have seen in the last four years,” Gargava said. “And what a supercycle really means is that you may have more long-lasting highs, longer highs and shallower troughs.”
Gargava cited research from Fidelity Digital Assets that outlined the supercycle mechanism, drawing an analogy to commodity markets in the 2000s, where persistent multi-year demand changed typical market behavior.
According to the executive, three factors could support such a regime change. First, steady institutional investment through exchange-traded funds represents sustained demand rather than episodic speculative activity, potentially sustaining capital flows during periods of weakening sentiment.
Second, pro-cryptocurrency policies in the United States could reduce regulatory uncertainty and encourage broader participation from institutional investors and intermediaries, Gargava said.
Third, the cryptocurrency market is maturing and exhibiting changing correlations with traditional assets. “We are also seeing the crypto market as a whole maturing and diverging from the S&P 500 and precious metals,” Gargava said, suggesting Bitcoin’s trading behavior may become less dependent on the traditional movements of risky assets.
Gargava has not definitively stated that the four-year cycle has ended, but instead framed the question as one market participant will answer in 2026 based on whether Bitcoin follows its historical boom-and-bust pattern or shows a longer, steady expansion supported by structural market changes.
