Wall Street banks and crypto analysts set sharply conflicting Bitcoin targets for 2026, underscoring uncertainty over ‘digital gold’ and macro risks.
Summary
- JPMorgan sees Bitcoin expanding its role as “digital gold” and is looking at the upside as volatility subsides and regulations tighten.
- Tim Draper is targeting outsized gains from BTC by October 2026, viewing this as a hedge against dollar declines and legacy funding.
- Benjamin Cowen and Standard Chartered identify cycle risk and slower institutional demand, warning of a reset after 2025 and a lower peak in 2026.
Major financial institutions and industry analysts have released varying price forecasts for Bitcoin for the next 12 to 24 months, according to reports compiled by financial news outlet Finbold.
Digital gold to doom cycle
JPMorgan Chase & Co. has predicted significant appreciation for Bitcoin by 2026, positioning the cryptocurrency as a potential challenger to gold market dominance, the bank’s analysts said. The projection assumes that Bitcoin (BTC) continues to function as ‘digital gold’, with institutional capital inflows competing with gold’s market capitalization, the analysts said. The bank identified a near-term price floor from which the recovery could gain momentum, while noting that regulatory clarity and reduced volatility could support sustainable growth. According to the analysis, economic slowdown remains a risk factor.
Venture capitalist Tim Draper has predicted substantial profits by October 2026, according to recent interviews. Draper attributed the prediction to Bitcoin’s potential role as a hedge against the dollar’s depreciation and its technological advantages over traditional currencies, arguing that the cryptocurrency could have a bigger impact than the internet through wider adoption in retail payments and financial services.
Crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen has provided a more cautious outlook, predicting a possible market reset after a possible peak in late 2025, according to his analysis. Cowen’s forecast suggests that Bitcoin could rise before falling in late 2026, entering a downturn similar to previous market cycles. The analyst drew parallels with market conditions in 2019 and warned that excessive optimism could trigger a sharp correction. Cowen extended the warning to alternative cryptocurrencies including Ethereum, arguing that new all-time highs in 2026 remain unlikely due to Bitcoin’s market dominance and broader market fatigue.
Standard Chartered has cut its Bitcoin forecast by half and now expects a lower peak than previously expected by the end of 2026, according to Geoffrey Kendrick, the bank’s Global Head of Digital Assets Research. Kendrick cited slower corporate purchasing of government bonds and greater reliance on inflows from exchange-traded funds as reasons for the credit rating downgrade. He described the current market pullback as a “cold breeze” rather than a full-blown downturn. The bank maintains a positive longer-term outlook and expects higher levels by 2030, driven by supply constraints and portfolio shifts away from traditional assets such as gold, the revised forecast said.
The varied projections come as Bitcoin trades near key technical levels after a volatile year-end period.
