Asteroid’s earth impact opportunities are falling, scientists are playing now the long waiting game

You can now breathe, the earth will not end through an asteroid hit – but.

Astronomers who guard a potentially catastrophic asteroid have his chance to get the earth dramatically because new observations refined his predicted process.

The impact chance of Asteroid 2024 JR4 has fallen from 2.8% to only 0.16%, according to the latest data from the Near-Earth Object Coordination Center of the European Space Agency. This significant reduction comes after refined orbital calculations based on recent observations that have reduced the “uncertainty window” of his path.

Despite the lower opportunities, scientists cannot completely exclude a collision. The asteroid, estimated at 130-300 feet wide (40-90 meters), could possibly hit the earth on December 22, 2032. An impact of an object of this size -similar to the person who caused the Tunguska event from 1908 -can Destroyed a city if it hit a populated area, making energy equivalent to 7.7 megatones TNT.

“When the asteroid entered the atmosphere over a populated area, an airburgst of an object on the smaller side of the size of the size, could make up about 130-200 feet (40-60 meters) of windows or cause small structural damage in a city, “NASA explained on a FAQ page. “An asteroid of around 300 feet (90 meters), which is much less likely, can cause more serious damage, possibly collapsing residential structures over a city and smashing windows in larger regions.”

Others, such as former ISS crew member Chris Hadfield, describe the event with more dramatic language.

“Think of the destruction we have achieved against each other in Hiroshima and Nagasaki – this is 500 times more powerful than that,” he told the British digital radio station LBC News.

The Space Rock was first seen on Christmas Day 2024 by the Asteroid Terrestrial-Impact Last Alert System of Atlas in Chile, only two days after it had passed the earth at a distance of 828,800 kilometers or 0.0055400 astronomical units, as if you want to become technical.

Impact probability has shifted

The impact chance of the asteroid has been fluctuating wild since his discovery. At the beginning of January 2025, NASA reported a chance above 1%. In mid-February, this figure peaked at 3.1%-the highest ever registered for an object of this size, he fell to the current estimate.

Telescopes based on the ground will continue to follow 2024 JR4 until the beginning of April 2025, when NASA claims that it will be too faint to detect. The James Webb Space Telescope is planned to observe the asteroid in March 2025 to better assess its size and further refine the track calculations.

After April, astronomers are confronted with a long observation gap. The asteroid will only be visible again in 2028, which means that no updates for the impact chance for three years are possible. This leaves the current probability of 0.16% until then as the standing estimate.

Although the current chance of 0.16% is relatively low, it does not remain zero and considerably higher than many daily risks. For comparison: the chance of solo -mining a Bitcoin block is 0.098% -and it happened several times.

NASA and ESA have released various probability estimates during their observations. NASA reported a decrease from 3.1% to 1.5% on 19 February, while ESA mentioned the current 0.16% figure based on data from 21 February.

These differences are probably due to variations in observation data, calculation methods or timing of updates between the agencies, among other things.

The International Asteroid Warning Network and Space Mission Planning Advisory Group are considering the following steps, since the chance was more than 1% earlier in February. These non-approved organizations coordinate worldwide efforts to detect and respond to potential asteroid threats.

Published by James Rubin