From mobile wallets to transaction fees, a16z-crypto analyzes the key indicators that will shape the crypto landscape in 2025.
The year 2024 was transformative for the crypto space as activity reached an all-time high, transaction fees fell, stablecoins found practical use cases, and spot Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) exchange-traded funds finally gained approval. Meanwhile, regulatory clarity began to emerge, providing the industry with a clearer path forward. As 2025 begins, here it is five metrics a16z’s partner Daren Matsuoka thinks the monitoring is worth it.
Mobile crypto wallets
Crypto wallets on mobile are where it’s at. By 2024, more than 35 million people were using them monthly, Matsuoka notes, with big names like Coinbase Wallet, MetaMask and Trust Wallet emerging as leading the charge. At the same time, newer apps like the Solana-focused Phantom and World App are also gaining popularity.
Mobile crypto applications have become so popular that they now serve as an informal indicator of retail investor interest, with observers noting a correlation between their high rankings in Apple’s App Store and rising crypto prices.
While millions own crypto, many remain passive holders. For wider adoption, Matsuoka says blockchain developers must find the “right balance between security, privacy and usability,” admitting that the task is “non-trivial.” Nevertheless, the a16z partner believes that blockchain infrastructure can now “handle hundreds of millions – or billions – of people on the chain,” adding that it is a “better time than ever to introduce a next-generation mobile wallet.” to build” than ever before.
According to facts According to Statista, the countries with the highest mobile wallet adoption are in Asia, despite the presence of major US brands such as PayPal, Apple Pay and Google Pay. This trend is not coincidental, as mobile wallets are being used in emerging markets as a tool to address the problem of unbanked populations. As a result, the next big innovation in mobile crypto wallets could come from this region.
Stablecoins everywhere
Stablecoins had a big moment in 2024. Lower transaction fees made them even more useful for things like cross-border payments, money transfers, and even buying everyday things. They also help people in countries with crazy retail values (e.g. Argentina and Turkey).
“Stablecoins are already the cheapest way to send a dollar, and we expect businesses will increasingly accept stablecoins for payments.”
Daren Matsuoka
Yet there is still no dominant solution that brings stablecoin payments closer to traditional methods, leaving a significant gap in the market.
Matsuoka notes that stablecoin payments are rapidly gaining popularity and show no signs of slowing down like payments giant Visa has developed a dashboard to distinguish real stablecoin usage from bot-driven transactions.
“If stablecoin adoption – one of crypto’s clearest use cases – takes off in 2025, this will be a benchmark to watch,” says Matsuoka.
ETPs bring Bitcoin and Ethereum to the masses
Last year, Bitcoin and Ethereum got their first real exchange-traded funds approved in the US. This makes it much easier for ordinary people – and large institutions – to invest in crypto.
However, so far these ETFs have only attracted 515,000 BTC (~$110 billion) and 611,000 ETH (~$13 billion), Matsuoka notes, adding that “activating the distributors – such as Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan and Merrill Lynch, who “getting these products into the portfolios of retail investors will take time.”
The a16z partner proposes to track on-chain deposits and withdrawals from addresses “identified as custodians of the ETPs,” noting that more institutional investors will likely seek exposure to crypto assets, leading to larger net flows for the ETPs.
DEXs vs. CEXs
Decentralized exchanges are slowly eating up the market share of the centralized exchanges. Although their trading volume is still far from centralized, they already handle about 11% of spot trading, Matsuoka noted, adding that this number is rising.
“Recently, DEX volume hit an all-time high – driven by a large increase in transaction volume at high-throughput chains like Coinbase’s Base and Solana as new users entered the space.”
Daren Matsuoka
While Matsuoka says DEXs will likely continue to gain share in 2025, it’s unclear whether retail investors will rush to switch from centralized platforms. So far, the pace has been slow, as it took the decentralized trading platforms four years to capture more than 10% of the spot trading volume compared to their centralized counterparts. facts from DefiLlama.
Transaction costs
In an effort to identify which blockchain network is gaining popularity, transaction fees can show how much demand there is. But here’s the catch: while fees should show growth, they shouldn’t become so high that they deter users.
Last year, Solana passed Ethereum for the first time in total fees collected, even though Solana’s transactions are extremely cheap (less than 1 cent vs. $5+ on Ethereum). Matsuoka admits this is a major milestone, adding that many ecosystems and their associated fee markets are maturing, making it a “good time to start measuring the economic value facilitated by different blockchains.”
In the long term, demand for blockspace – measured as the total USD value of fees paid – could be the most important metric for tracking the progress of the crypto industry, as it reflects its involvement in valuable economic activities and the willingness of users to pay for it. Matsuoka wrote.
