Here’s why Bitcoin is a better scarce asset than gold: Cathie Wood of Ark Invest

Bitcoin’s mathematically limited supply makes it a scarcer asset that is superior to gold in an era of rising institutional demand, according to Cathie Wood, founder and CEO of Ark Invest.

In her ‘2026 Outlook’ report, Wood analyzes the recent divergence between the two assets.

Gold vs Bitcoin

While gold rose 65% in 2025, Bitcoin decreased by 6%. Wood attributes gold’s 166% rise since October 2022 not to inflation fears, but to “global wealth creation” outpacing the metal’s modest annual supply growth of ~1.8%.

“Rising demand for gold could outpace supply growth,” she wrote. However, Bitcoin presents fundamentally different supply dynamics.

“Prospectors, by boosting gold production, can do something they can’t do with Bitcoin,” Wood notes. “Bitcoin will mathematically increase by ~0.82% per year over the next two years, after which growth will slow to ~0.41% per year.”

This inelastic supply schedule means that any increase in demand – such as continued inflows into spot ETFs – would have a more powerful effect on Bitcoin’s price. “If demand for Bitcoin continues to increase, crypto could benefit more than gold due to its mathematical nature,” the report suggests.

Bitwise CIO Matthew Hougan recently reiterated this scarcity thesis, suggesting that continued institutional demand exceeding supply could cause a “parabolic blow” for Bitcoin.

“Bitcoin’s 2025 performance looks weak on its own, but context matters,” Georgii Verbitskii, founder of TYMIO, told me. Declutter. “Bitcoin rose sharply in 2024… a period of consolidation the following year is not only normal but justified.”

Verbitskii agreed with Wood’s core structural argument, noting that “when capital turns into hard assets during a global currency revaluation, Bitcoin belongs in the same category as gold.”

However, he highlighted a crucial difference: gold miners can increase production if prices rise, but Bitcoin’s supply is fixed. “That asymmetry means that when demand returns, Bitcoin’s price response is structurally more explosive,” Verbitskii said.

Looking ahead

Wood’s analysis also places gold’s current rally in a sobering historical context.

The ratio of gold market capitalization to M2 money supply has reached levels last seen in the early 1930s and 1980s – periods she describes as ‘extreme’. Historically, sustained declines from such peaks have coincided with strong stock market returns.

For allocators, Wood highlights a final, crucial benefit: diversification.

The correlation between Bitcoin and gold is lower than that between the S&P 500 and bonds, she noted, concluding that Bitcoin “should be a good source of diversification for asset allocators looking for higher returns per unit of risk in the coming years.”

“As I look at 2026, I don’t see this as a buy or sell question, but rather a hold question,” Verbitskii said. “Gold offers stability, Bitcoin offers asymmetric benefits. Historically, Bitcoin has grown faster than gold, and I expect this pattern to continue.”