In short
- VanEck developed a Bitcoin bull case that suggests BTC could reach $53.4 million per coin by 2050.
- In that scenario, BTC would become an important part of the global and domestic trading regime.
- The company’s base case assumes a BTC price of $2.9 million in 2050, and only $130,000 in the bear scenario.
Global asset manager VanEck said this week that Bitcoin’s price could rise as much as $53.4 million by 2050, according to the latest long-term capital market outlook for the asset.
The astronomical price forecast represents the company’s bull case in the scenario, which maintains a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 29% for Bitcoin over the next 25 years.
In that forecast, what the company calls “hyper-Bitcoinization,” the top crypto asset would represent a significant portion of domestic and international transactions handled.
“In a ‘hyper-Bitcoinization’ scenario where Bitcoin accounts for 20% of international trade and 10% of domestic GDP, the implied value per coin could reach $53.4 million,” reads the analysis by Matthew Sigel and Patrick Bush.
“This scenario requires Bitcoin to reach parity with, or even surpass, gold as a primary global reserve asset,” she added, “which makes up nearly 30% of global financial assets.”
Granted, that’s the company’s bullish forecast. But even VanEck’s base case shows significant price appreciation for Bitcoin: it projects a CAGR of 15%, leading to a price of $2.9 million per BTC in 2050.
In this scenario, VanEck predicts that BTC will account for 5-10% of global trade, and 5% of domestic swaps. Moreover, it believes that central banks will start allocating up to 2.5% of their balance sheets to Bitcoin as a hedge.
With Bitcoin changing hands at $90,319 on Friday, it is almost 3,100% lower than the company’s base case for 2050. To reach the company’s bull case, Bitcoin will need to rise more than 59,000%.
However, it is only 43% below the company’s bear case for 2050, which assumes a CAGR of just 2% and projects BTC at $130,000 – just 3% above the most recent all-time high of $126,080 set in October last year.
The company’s 2050 valuations have moved slightly higher since they were announced in 2024. At the time, it made a bull case of $52.3 million per BTC, while the base and bear cases remained relatively unchanged.
BTC is down 0.3% over the past 24 hours and is about 28% below its all-time high in October.
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