A Supreme Court ruling on Learning Resources v. Trump could boost emergency tariffs, expanding a 4,500-page code with $100 billion in revenue and risk markets at stake.
Summary
- The Harmonized Tariff Schedule has been expanded to more than 4,500 pages, with Chapter 99 alone containing more than 3,300 pages of temporary, often emergency-based tariff actions.
- Learning Resources v. Trump will test presidential tariff powers under IEEPA, potentially putting at stake $100 billion in revenues and billions in potential refunds to importers.
- Stocks, commodities and crypto have adopted a defensive positioning as markets await the verdict, with BTC and ETH trading sideways after rallying in early 2026.
The U.S. tariff system expanded significantly during President Donald Trump’s second term, with the last harmonized tariff schedule exceeding 4,500 pages, according to government documents. The volume represents an increase of over 100 pages over the 2025 edition and approximately 800 pages more than the 2017 baseline.
The Trump tariff creates $200 billion in tariffs
The Yale Budget Lab estimates that the effective consumer burden due to tariffs averages 16.8 percent. Financial markets have shown caution in recent weeks as companies and investors await a Supreme Court ruling that could impact tariff policy.
The cryptocurrency markets, which recovered in early 2026, have stabilized in recent weeks. Bitcoin and Ethereum have been trading largely sideways since mid-December, while altcoin trading volumes have declined, according to market data.
Scott Lincicome, vice president of the Cato Institute’s Trade Policy Studies department, reported that the number of individual tariff actions affecting major imports has risen from three in 2017 to at least 17 currently. In an analysis published late last year, Lincicome described the US tariff code as “mind-numbingly difficult” to navigate, with economic costs that are “probably staggering”.
Much of the extensive complexity appears in Chapter 99 of the Schedule of Tariffs, beginning on page 3,320, which describes temporary changes promulgated under various trade authorities. The section includes executive actions issued through 2025 assigning unique statistical reporting numbers to goods ranging from ignition coils to backhoe loaders.
The Supreme Court is expected to rule on Friday in the Learning Resources, Inc. case. v. Trump, a case examining the limits of presidential tariff authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). At stake in the decision is about $100 billion in government revenue related to tariffs.
According to government figures, the US has collected more than $200 billion in duties since the beginning of 2025. The Tax Foundation estimates that 55 percent of that revenue comes from emergency rates whose legal status is currently under review. A ruling against the administration could require revisions to hundreds of rate schedule entries. By 2025, more than 30 revisions have been made to the scheme.
The government has stated that it will replace any canceled tariffs with alternatives that it describes as ‘legally sustainable’. If the Supreme Court rules that certain duties have been illegally collected, billions of dollars may have to be returned to importers, according to legal analysts. Costco, along with other companies, has filed a lawsuit against the administration to qualify for possible refunds.
Stock markets have shown restraint in recent weeks and commodity traders have reduced their risks in the run-up to the ruling, according to market observers. The cryptocurrency markets, which were on the rise in the early days of 2026 due to institutional inflows, the launch of exchange-traded funds and stablecoin adoption, have since cooled.
The ruling is expected to impact both tariff policy and financial markets, according to trade policy analysts. Companies from all sectors, including importers, technology manufacturers and cryptocurrency companies, have taken defensive positions ahead of the decision.
