Bitcoin has entered a bear market, analysts say: here’s why

According to data from CryptoQuant, demand for Bitcoin has weakened in recent months as ETF holdings fell, large investors accumulated more slowly and derivatives indicators fell.

In a report released Friday, the analytics firm said Bitcoin demand fell below its long-term trend in early October, a shift it said historically indicated a bear market.

“Since 2023, Bitcoin has experienced three waves of demand, driven by the launch of the US spot ETF in January 2024, Trump’s presidential election victory and the Bitcoin Treasury bubble,” the report said. “However, demand growth has entered a period of slowdown since early October and is now growing below trend. As such, we believe that most of the demand growth in this cycle is over, with the corresponding bearish impact on price.”

The report comes as Bitcoin continues to trade just above $88,000, down 30% from its all-time high above $126,000 in early October.

According to CryptoQuant, US-based spot Bitcoin ETFs became net sellers in the fourth quarter of 2025, with combined holdings down about 24,000 BTC, or about $2.12 billion. The report contrasted that activity with the fourth quarter of 2024, when ETF investments rose sharply over the same period.

The report also showed weaker growth among addresses holding between 100 and 1,000 BTC. CryptoQuant said this group – which also includes ETFs and corporate bonds – grew below trend.

“This cohort, which includes ETFs and treasury companies, represented the majority of Bitcoin demand growth this cycle,” CryptoQuant wrote. “This weakening reflects a shift in demand trends in late 2021, which preceded the Bitcoin bear market of 2022.”

Bitcoin’s price action has also changed. According to the report, Bitcoin has remained below its 365-day moving average, a level that CryptoQuant describes as a long-term technical threshold that historically separated bull and bear markets.

In previous cycles, the company said, downturns followed periods when demand growth peaked and then declined. CryptoQuant pointed to Bitcoin’s realized price as a historical reference point for bear market lows.

The company sees a potential cycle low of $56,000 ahead, which would represent a 55% drop from the all-time high and another 36% from Bitcoin’s current price. However, there is talk of “intermediate price support” around the $70,000 level.

CryptoQuant’s report comes after months of declines for Bitcoin and other top assets, following a record $19 billion liquidation in October. Some analysts still hold bullish views on Bitcoin through 2026, even suggesting that the traditional four-year price cycle should be considered a relic of the past – although CryptoQuant and others continue to predict further losses.