Why Bitwise Expects New Bitcoin Highs in 2026 – and the End of the Four-Year Cycle

Crypto investment company and index fund manager Bitwise is thinking Bitcoin will hit a new all-time high again in 2026, even after falling into a rut over the past two months.

The company predicts that the leading crypto asset will break the trend of previous four-year cycles thanks to the declining strength of previous cycle indicators, and break out into a new trend. high figure above $126,080– the current all-time high was reached in early October.

“Bitcoin has historically developed on a four-year cycle, with three significant ‘up’ years followed by a sharp pullback year. According to this cycle, 2026 should be a pullback year,” said Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan wrote.

“We don’t see that happening,” he continued. “We believe these are the forces that previously drove four-year cycles: Bitcoin halveinterest rate cycles and the leveraged peaks and troughs in crypto are significantly weaker than in previous cycles.”

Hougan also noted the continued momentum of institutional capital entering the crypto market since the approval of Bitcoin ETFs and tailwinds as reasons why BTC will reach new highs.

“We expect the combination of these factors to push Bitcoin to new all-time highs, consigning the four-year cycle to the dustbin of history,” he added.

BTC recently changed hands at $87,800, up 2% in the past 24 hours, but down more than 30% from its all-time high.

Despite swinging to new highs in 2025, the largest crypto asset by market cap has actually fallen nearly 18% over the past year, according to data from CoinGecko.

Meanwhile, traditional stock indexes like the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 are up 14.5% and 12%, respectively, over the same period.

Bitwise expects the correlation to diverge further in 2026, with regulatory progress and institutional adoption again cited as reasons Bitcoin’s correlation with the stock market will decline. The company also predicted that Bitcoin, a historically volatile asset, will be less volatile than leading AI stock Nvidia, the world’s largest publicly traded company by market capitalization.

Combining these predictions with the end of the four-year cycle, investors get the “trifecta” of strong returns, less volatility and lower correlations, according to Bitwise.

Other notable ones predictions from the company’s 2026 outlook include crypto stocks outperforming tech stocks, half of the Ivy League funds making crypto investments, as well as new highs for Ethereum and Solana – but only if the CLARITY Act passes.

The company expects the pair of layer 1 blockchains to benefit most from tokenization and stablecoins, crypto features it calls “megatrends” that would be further strengthened if the US CLARITY Act, also known as the Market Structure Act, provides clear guidance on crypto regulation.