Traders say Dogecoin’s price cycle metrics have reset, showing a moderate valuation, rising active addresses and accumulation of new whales, but around 11.7 billion DOGE with a high near $0.20.
Summary
- The Mayer Multiple is well below previous blow-off peaks, indicating that DOGE is not yet in an overheated region as seen at the 2017 and 2021 peaks.
- Loss days have been compressed by extreme readings, resembling reset phases that preceded previous developments in Dogecoin cycles.
- Data from Glassnode and Santiment shows the largest spike in active addresses since September, 480 million DOGE purchased by whales, and major resistance to realized costs around $0.20.
Dogecoin’s price traded around recent levels as technical and on-chain indicators point to an improved market structure compared to previous bear cycles, according to an analysis shared by cryptocurrency traders.
Trader Cryptollica posted a long-term monthly Dogecoin (DOGE) chart with the Mayer Multiple indicator, which uses 200 and 50 period moving averages with a threshold of 2.4. The current value stands at 0.66005, significantly lower than the highs above 5 that accompanied the 2017 and 2021 market peaks, according to the chart. The data indicates that Dogecoin has not reached the overheated conditions historically associated with major market tops.
Cryptollica also shared an alphractal chart titled “Dogecoin: Number of Days at Loss,” which displays the price of Dogecoin with a histogram showing how long coins have been held at unrealized loss. The lows from the previous cycle around 2014-2015 and the period after 2021 showed extended highs above about 1,200-1,500 loss days. The latest data shows that the metric has compressed towards the lower end of the scale, which the analysis suggests resembles early reset phases that preceded previous progress.
Dogecoin price could head towards $0.20: analyst
Analyst Ali Martinez highlighted a sharp recovery in network activity, citing data from Glassnode. “Dogecoin just saw 71,589 active addresses. Biggest spike since September,” Martinez wrote. The chart showed that daily active addresses were between 45,000 and 47,500 as of early November, while the price has fallen in recent weeks. On December 3, the number of active addresses rose, signaling broader participation, according to the data.
Martinez also noticed patterns of whale accumulation. He posted a Santiment overview of the balances of addresses holding between 1 million and 100 million coins and reported that 480 million Dogecoin had been purchased by whales in 48 hours. Assets in this category fell from about 35.6 billion in mid-October to less than 28 billion at the end of November, indicating continued division. In recent days, assets rose to roughly 28.45 billion as prices recovered, confirming renewed accumulation among large holders, according to the chart.
A third chart from Martinez, titled “Dogecoin: Cost Basis Distribution Heatmap,” identified key resistance around the 20 cent level, where around 11.72 billion Dogecoin were accumulated, according to Glassnode data. The heatmap highlights a tight band above that resistance level and marks a heavily realized price junction where a large number of coins move from loss to breakeven as the spot price reaches that level again.
The combination of a subdued valuation on the Mayer Multiple, a reset of loss days figures, the biggest spike in active addresses since September, the recent whale accumulation of 480 million coins and a defined resistance zone based on costs provide the basis for the analysis, the traders said. Whether higher price levels are reached will depend on the market’s ability to absorb the supply of approximately 11.72 billion coins at resistance and sustain recent improvements in on-chain activity and large investor demand, analysts said.
