Hyperliquid’s HYPE price is currently trading near $32 after a failed breakout, with leverage and volume at the weak spot shifting risk to a deeper downside.
Summary
- HYPE is around $32, down more than 7% in 24 hours and down 11% weekly, well below the peak of $59.
- Shrinking spot volume and open interest on heavy derivatives point to a leverage-driven, vulnerable market
- The technicals show lower highs, waning momentum and nearby supports in the low $30s and high $20s are at risk.
Hyperliquid’s HYPE (HYPE) price is trading in the mid-$30s, with the price currently driven by supply from the recent unlock and ongoing purchases from the project’s relief fund. Traders appear to be pointing to a short-term focus on whether the $33 to $35 area can serve as support, or whether a breakdown in that zone would open the way for a move towards the high $20s in the coming sessions.
HYPE price forecast
Spot trades on major trading venues are clustered in the low to mid-$30s, giving HYPE a fully diluted multi-billion dollar valuation on daily volume of several hundred million dollars. The daily RSI has been stuck in the top 40 and the short-term averages pushing down the price indicate an undecided market in which neither side has clear control, despite bullish claims.
The market structure is still leaning towards a clear upward breakout. The recent unlock has put a visible portion of supply into circulation, trading activity is shrinking instead of expanding, and the chart is moving into the same tired channel it has been stuck in for months.
2.6% of circulating HYPE supply fell into the float
Below the surface the currents are skewed. About 9.9 million HYPE – roughly 2.6% of the circulating supply – fell into the float for insiders and contributors in a single cliff event around November 29. Hyperliquid’s Assistance Fund has spent more than $600 million on buybacks this year and typically absorbs a few million dollars worth of tokens a day, but that steady demand seems small next to a one-time release of this size, leaving the book jittery and vulnerable if any of that supply hits the bid. Derivatives tell a similar story: Volumes in spot and futures markets are down about a third from recent highs and open interest is down a few points, a mix that often creates sudden air pockets once the price starts moving.
Feelings on social media
Scroll through X and the split is clear. One camp argues that HYPE is just a slow beta, lagging the rest of the market and pulling on the index rather than breaking down on its own, while another camp is parlaying the recent underperformance into a broader shift toward lower risk in majors and high-beta names. A louder group claims that the Assistance Fund is quietly raising tokens while HYPE is trading like stressed paper, insisting that the market has lost perspective and that current levels look more like a temporary disconnect than a fair settlement price.
The graph refuses to choose a side for the time being. HYPE is still running lower in a descending channel that has capped rallies since late summer, with the $33-35 band acting as the pivot where both bulls and bears continue to test each other. A decisive daily close below that zone would quickly bring the $28-30 area into focus as a likely liquidity pocket and stop cluster, while a clean recovery and grab of the $36-37 “distribution” area would indicate that sellers are finally running out of supplies and reopening space towards 40 and above by year-end – but only if accompanied by larger flows, healthier funding and firmer open interest.
Relative to expectations, the short term is still slightly trending downward. The new supply glut and softer speculative participation make for a retest from the high $20s to the base case, with a lower probability path where HYPE pushes back to $37 if macro risk stabilizes and the Assistance Fund bid is strong enough to chew through what’s left of the unlocked supply.
