Arthur Hayes predicts that stock price discovery will migrate to 24/7 crypto perpetuals, putting pressure on traditional exchanges as regulations become more crypto-friendly.
Summary
- Hayes argues that BitMEX-style perpetual swaps concentrate liquidity, offer high leverage and limited remedies, making them superior to dated futures.
- He cites Hyperliquid’s HIP-3 and a Nasdaq 100 perpetual as early evidence that stock criminals can gain real volume on permissionless crypto platforms.
- Hayes links the shift to friendlier US regulatory policies under Trump and expects a S&P 500 index and Nasdaq 100 perpetuals will take the lead by the end of 2020.
BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes did just that predicted that crypto-style perpetual futures will supplant traditional stock exchanges, stating that stock price discovery will migrate to 24/7 perpetual markets on crypto platforms, according to recent public statements.
Arthur Hayes makes bold crypto predictions
The prediction comes as US and Asian exchanges, including CBOE and SGX, prepare to introduce their own perpetual products by the end of 2025, Hayes said. He characterized the development as an “adapt or die” moment for traditional finance, stating that established exchanges risk losing liquidity and relevance to crypto platforms and decentralized exchanges if they fail to adopt the perpetual crypto model and socialized loss margin systems.
Hayes described how BitMEX’s creation of the perpetual swap, a futures-like product with no expiration date, transformed crypto trading by consolidating liquidity into a single contract that tracks spot prices while allowing high leverage. He stated that perpetuals, combined with socialized loss systems and insurance funds, provide retail traders with access to high leverage and deep liquidity, while limiting legal risk for initial margin calls if trades fail.
Hayes highlighted Hyperliquid’s HIP-3, a permissionless protocol that allowed a company called XYZ to launch a Nasdaq 100 perpetual stock exchange that currently trades significant daily volume, according to his statements. He predicted that equity perpetuals will become a major product by 2026, with both centralized exchanges and decentralized platforms competing to bring them to market by the end of the year.
Hayes also referred to changes in US regulations. After years of enforcement actions following the collapse of the FTX and its legal proceedings at the CFTC, he stated that the regulatory environment changed in 2025 under the Trump administration, which has taken a more favorable stance toward cryptocurrency. This shift, he said, has enabled sandbox-style experimentation for new derivatives and prompted global regulators to follow U.S. policies, giving exchanges like SGX the confidence to pursue perpetual listings.
Hayes predicted that by the end of the 2020s, the largest derivatives on major U.S. benchmarks, including the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100, will be perpetual bonds traded on crypto exchanges rather than futures listed on CME and other established platforms. He stated that traditional clearinghouses face limitations due to undercapitalized guarantee funds, restrictive retail leverage rules and outdated operating hours that are incompatible with 24/7 information flows. According to Hayes, perpetual swaps allow traders to post less collateral while gaining access to meaningful exposure, reducing the need to deposit large sums on exchanges after multiple industry hacks and failures.
Recent on-chain data shows that Hayes has liquidated significant positions in several altcoins following a sharp market decline, despite earlier indications that he would not take profits on his ETH holdings, according to blockchain analytics. Hayes recently touted a privacy coin on social media platform X after it posted triple-digit monthly gains that outperformed the broader altcoin market.
