Bitcoin in a Death Cross: How Low Will We Go?

Bitcoin pockets are being blown out today as the price of BTC falls to nearly $80,000 and marks a new seven-month low.

The continued downward pressure on the price has pushed Bitcoin into a so-called death cross – when the short-term average price of an asset falls below the long-term average price. It is a technical pattern that usually indicates long-term bearish momentum. For traders who study charts, this confirms what permabulls don’t want to hear: it’s over – at least for now.

This is happening as the crypto market as a whole shrinks to $2.91 trillion, with nearly $60 billion lost in the last 24 hours alone. Almost every coin in the top 100 in terms of market capitalization bleeds red.

The Fear and Greed Index, which measures market sentiment on a scale of 0 to 100, has fallen to 14 points – just four points above the year’s low of 10 in February. When this index falls below 20, it indicates ‘extreme fear’, and right now traders are absolutely terrified.

But it’s not just crypto drama that’s driving the market sell-off. The macro image becomes dirty. Just a few weeks ago, markets were pricing in a 97% chance that the Federal Reserve would cut rates in December. Now? Those odds have dropped to somewhere between 22% and 43%, depending on which metric you check.

Fed officials are openly divided, with many saying they would prefer to leave rates unchanged until the end of the year. For risky assets like crypto, which thrive on easy money, this is poison.

On Myriad, a prediction market developed by Declutter‘s parent company Dastan, traders are now overwhelmingly convinced that Bitcoin will not hit a new all-time high this year, putting the odds at almost 90% that BTC will not rise above the $126,000 mark it reached on October 6.

The bearish vibes are so strong that numerous traders currently also have a 40% chance of Bitcoin falling to $69,000. So how low will it go? This is what the graphs say.

Bitcoin (BTC) price: Death cross in place, and take control

Bitcoin opened today at $86,691 and sold off immediately, hitting an intraday low of $80,620 before bouncing slightly to the current price of $85,187. That’s down 1.61% on the day after dropping nearly 5% in the past 24 hours. More importantly, for traders it is further confirmation of the death cross pattern that has been gradually forming since the all-time high in early October. The death cross pattern was first confirmed on Wednesday when Bitcoin fell to around $88,000 – now it has fallen deeper.

Here’s what’s happening on the charts: Exponential moving averages, or EMAs, help traders identify trend direction by tracking the average price of an asset over the short, medium and long term. When the short-term 50-day EMA falls below the longer-term 200-day EMA, it means the bears are in control and the longer-term bull market structure has been broken.

For Bitcoin, the 50-day EMA has now definitively passed below the 200-day EMA. In short, this indicates that the traders’ momentum in the market has shifted from bullish to bearish. The gap between both EMAs widens as the price of BTC transactions falls below these targets – and the wider the gap, the stronger the trend.

Bitcoin’s price is now trading well below both EMAs, creating a situation where any attempted recovery is met with immediate resistance, widening the gap between the two EMAs, making the bearish trend even stronger. Bulls trying to move higher will first have to reclaim the 50-day EMA and then tackle the 200-day – a double wall of resistance that has historically been difficult to break through in one go.

As for other technical indicators, the Average Directional Index, or ADX, stands at 41, which is considered “strong.” ADX measures trend strength regardless of direction, with values ​​above 25 indicating a clear trend is present. This tells us that at 41 we are not just seeing a small correction, but a potentially longer decline.

The Relative Strength Index, or RSI, has fallen to 23.18, putting Bitcoin deep in oversold territory. RSI measures momentum on a scale of 0 to 100, with values ​​below 30 indicating oversold conditions where assets may be undervalued. However, ‘oversold’ does not mean that sales have to stop. In strong downtrends, the RSI can remain in oversold territory for extended periods while prices continue to fall. But hey, this also provides hopium for momentum traders, as it signals that the worst may be over. (The worst is an accelerated crash, not necessarily a steady decline.)

The Squeeze Momentum Indicator shows ‘bearish momentum’, meaning selling pressure is increasing rather than decreasing. Meanwhile, the Volume Profile Visible Range (VPVP) shows the price of Bitcoin trading “below” the major volume nodes, indicating there is not much buying interest at current levels.

So everything is clearly bearish. But where is the next support? How low can the price of BTC go? The chart reveals several important horizontal levels to keep an eye on.

The immediate danger zone is $80,697, which held briefly today but looked shaky. If that breaks through, the next major support will be at $74,555, followed by $65,727, and possibly all the way to $53,059 if real panic sets in during a crypto winter. These price levels have had previous consolidation zones where significant trading volume has accumulated, making them natural landing spots for oversold bounces.

As for resistances, traders will look for BTC price to rise above $90,000 again and consider $100,000 as the main psychological target.

Ethereum (ETH) price: Hanging by a thread

Ethereum opened at $2,830.7 and fell intraday to $2,621 before stabilizing around $2,798 – a loss of 1.16% on the day. While not as dramatic as Bitcoin’s sell-off, ETH’s technical picture is equally concerning.

Unlike Bitcoin, Ethereum has not yet fully confirmed its death cross; the 50-day EMA is still technically above the 200-day mark, providing a ‘long’ signal on an indicator that is clearly still several hours away from a bearish price change. The hole is paper thin and shrinking quickly. More importantly, ETH’s price is trading well below both EMAs, making that technical distinction somewhat meaningless. The bearish momentum is clearly established.

A good way to see the natural support zones is to use the Fibonacci retracements: a series of natural clusters that appear during a trend and show support and resistance points in a specific time frame – not because of price, but because of natural proportions.

Currently, ETH is testing the Fibonacci level of 0.618 at around $2,755. If this level breaks, the next Fibonacci support won’t appear until $2,180, which would mark a massive 22% drop from current prices, resolving a price market with Myriad betting on the moon or ETH’s demise.

The ADX for Ethereum is even stronger than Bitcoin’s at 46, indicating that the downtrend is rock solid. Meanwhile, the RSI is at 28.46 – not as oversold as Bitcoin, but certainly in stressed territory. The Squeeze Momentum Indicator is also showing bearish momentum here, confirming that sellers are in control.

XRP Price: Another Death Cross

XRP is showing relative strength compared to its larger peers, dropping just 0.50% to close at $1.98 after opening at $1.99 and hitting an intraday low at $1.81796. However, don’t be misled by that modest percentage: the technical damage is real.

Like Bitcoin, Ripple-pegged XRP has confirmed a full death cross, with its 50-day EMA now below 200 days. The price of XRP is trading below both EMAs, and with an ADX of 32, the downtrend has enough strength to continue. While 32 is not as extreme as Bitcoin’s 41 or Ethereum’s 46, it is still well above the 25 threshold, confirming that there is a trend rather than just a random chop.

The RSI at 32.86 shows that XRP is approaching oversold territory, but has not quite reached the extreme stress levels of Bitcoin and Ethereum. This could mean one of two things: either XRP has more downside before it finds equilibrium, or it shows real relative strength that could make it a safer haven if the broader market continues to tank.

XRP had such a crazy year that the price action only shows two key horizontal support levels that should worry XRP holders – and that would be very painful for hodlers given the move from all-time highs towards those targets.

The next major support zone is at $1,589, which represents a potential 20% decline from current levels. If that breaks, there is very little support until $0.66, a catastrophic drop of 67% from current prices and almost 80% from the all-time high zone, which would take XRP back to early 2024 levels.

The Squeeze Momentum Indicator is showing ‘bearish momentum’ and like the other coins, the volume profile indicates that the price of XRP is trading below key volume levels, meaning there is not much buying interest to defend current prices.