In short
- Prediction Market Kalshi’s valuation has reached $11 billion following reports of an undisclosed $1 billion funding round.
- Independent data shows that the platform reaches $50 billion in annualized volume and $4.4 billion in October transactions.
- Federal rulings and state-level disputes continue to shape the company’s U.S. expansion as rivals regain domestic access.
US prediction market platform Kalshi has reportedly boosted its valuation to around $11 billion after raising $1 billion in an undisclosed funding round, according to an initial report from TechCrunch citing a source with knowledge of the deal.
The rise in valuation marks one of the fastest moves in the prediction market sector this year.
The company closed the round weeks after raising $300 million at a $5 billion valuation in October. Trading activity, market depth and user adoption continued to rise in the last quarter of this year.
Kalshi’s annualized trading volume reached about $50 billion last month, according to a report from crypto analytics platform CryptoRank. This figure marks a dramatic jump from about $300 million a year ago, as reported by the New York Times.
It has also surpassed Polymarket, its main rival. Just last month, it generated trading volume of about $4.4 billion, surpassing Polymarket’s $4.1 billion in the same month.
According to a Dune dashboard, about a third of Kalshi bets are for sports-related markets. According to a broader dashboard from the same manager, weekly theoretical volume in the prediction markets has also risen steadily since September.
Sequoia Capital and CapitalG reportedly led the deal, along with Andreessen Horowitz, Paradigm, Anthos Capital, Neo and other returning backers.
Kalshi’s increase “just shows that the ceiling is only getting higher for the prediction markets, and we haven’t seen anything yet,” Farokh Sarmad, co-founder and president of rival prediction market platform Myriad, told me. Declutter. (Disclosure: Myriad is owned by Declutter‘s parent company Dastan).
Kalshi declined to comment for this article. Declutter has contacted all investors mentioned and will update this article if anyone responds.
Prediction markets and regulators
Prediction markets have long faced legal friction in the US, given that such platforms sit between regulated derivatives and banned gambling, creating a jurisdictional tension that has defined the industry’s growth to date.
Kalshi won a high-profile lawsuit against the Commodity Futures Trading Commission last year, securing the right to offer election markets to US users. The ruling accelerated domestic growth but opened new fronts with state regulators who consider certain types of contracts to be gambling products rather than federally governed derivatives.
In May, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission decided to withdraw its appeal against Kalshi’s victory in a case in which the company was allowed to offer U.S. contracts on election results. Yet the company has concurrent disputes with several state regulators claiming the contracts are still governed by gambling statutes rather than commodity law.
Months later, its rival Polymarket was cleared by the same regulator to operate in the US, years after it was fined and pushed abroad over allegations that it had failed to comply with the regulator’s federal policies.
Daily debriefing Newsletter
Start every day with today’s top news stories, plus original articles, a podcast, videos and more.
