Morning minute: Bitcoin breaks below $100,000 for the first time since May

Morning Minute is a daily newsletter written by Tyler Warner. The analyzes and opinions expressed are his own and do not necessarily reflect those of Decrypt. Subscribe to the Morning Minute on Substack.

GM!

Today’s most important news:

• Crypto Majors Fall Another 2-5%, But Start to Recover; BTC at $102,300
• The Mando vs. KBM bet will be resolved if Bitcoin briefly falls below $100,000
• ZKsync Shares Plans for ZK Token Utility, Pumps 25%
• Gemini stock plans to launch a prediction market
• Sequans DAT sells $100 million worth of Bitcoin and becomes the newest DAT seller

📉 Bitcoin breaks $100,000 for the first time since May

Bitcoin finally cracking below $100,000 for the first time since the summer.

But beneath the carnage lie reasons for optimism.

📌What happened

BTC fell ~6% on Tuesday, falling to just under $100,000, triggering a wave of over $2 billion in long liquidations on the exchanges.

The sell cascade solved one of the longer-standing prediction markets on Myriad, with $100k officially reaching $120k earlier in the now infamous “Mando vs KBM” bet that KBM one (pour one out for the bulls).

Looking at the risk curve, ETH and SOL followed Bitcoin, each down 10-15%, with ETH falling below $3,100 and SOL falling below $150.

Several alts and memes fell even more, with some down 30-60%+ on the month.

While sentiment remains at Extreme Fear (estimated 2 points higher than Monday).

But (and there is a but) – a recovery appears to be in the making.

This morning BTC is back to $102,000 and rising; ETH is back above $3,340 and SOL is approaching $160.

🗣️What they say

“-38% on ETH from the high so far in the last cycle, after breaking consecutive ATHs, we saw declines (and recoveries after each cycle) of: -37% in Feb ’21 -23% in April ’21 -60% in May-July ’21, -34% in September ’21. It was all an existential crisis. Maybe this is the start of the multi-year bear, or maybe people have forgotten what bull markets feel like.” – DCinvestor, op X

🧠Why it matters

Under these circumstances, it’s easy to panic (and you wouldn’t be alone).

But there are reasons for optimism.

First, these types of withdrawals are common among major crypto assets. Yes, the volatility is not fun to experience right now, but it has historically been the price for outsized gains.

Second, the US government shutdown (a large and growing economic overhang in the US) is showing signs of promise that it could end soon.

And the main macro bull case that drove this entire cycle is still alive. ETF inflows are ongoing, 401k access is coming, government spending is constantly rising (debasement trading), the US is actively embracing Bitcoin, and onboarding crypto into the United States has never been easier.

Don’t give in and let the bankers steal your Bitcoin…

🌎 Macrocrypto and memes

A few Crypto and Web3 headlines that caught my attention:

• Crypto majors are down another 2-5%, but are recovering after Bitcoin falls below $100,000; BTC -2% at $102,100, ETH -5% at $3,320, BNB -1% at $945, SOL -2% at $157
• ZK (+24%), DASH (+12%), ASTER (+12%) and HYPE (+9%) top movers
• Liquidations hit the $1.7 billion mark on Tuesday, while Bitcoin slipped below $100,000 and ETH fell nearly $3,000
• Fear and greed gained 2 points to 23, but remains in Extreme Fear
• Berachain has restarted its chain after a ~day shutdown after the Balancer exploit, the money was returned
• Chain link introduced the Chainlink Runtime Environment (CRE), allowing institutions to deploy smart contracts across multiple blockchains with built-in compliance and legacy financial integration
• Twin plans to launch a prediction market and applied for a DCM license from the CFTC in May
• Marathon digital (MARA) reaches record revenue of ~$252 million in Q3 as company continues to expand into AI computing services

In corporate bonds/ETFs

In Memes

• Memecoin Leaders are mixed after their recent recession; DOGE -1%, Shiba -2%, PEPE -2%, PENGU even, BONK +1%, TRUMP -1%, SPX +4% and FARTCOIN +2%
• jelly briefly peaked at $500 million before falling nearly 60% to $222 million
• 1 (+80% to $27 million) and ALCH (+27% to $70 million) were notable gainers

💰 Token, airdrop and protocol tracker

Here’s an overview of the top token, protocol and airdrop news of the day:

🚚 What’s happening in NFTs?

Here is the list of other notable headlines of the day in NFTs: