According to the new crypto report a16z, stablecoins have been used to move approximately $46 trillion over the past twelve months. Additionally, more than $80 trillion in crypto trading volume has been processed during the same period.
Framed against payment flows, the stablecoin count puts on-chain dollars within a low single-digit share of global settlement, and is starting to move off the mainstream in scale for specific use cases such as cross-border transfers and 24/7 treasury movements.
The reference point is important. Assuming a global payment value of approximately $2 trillion in 2024, stablecoins will account for approximately 2.3% of the world’s payment flows on a flow-to-flow basis.
That comparison keeps the denominator consistent and avoids the common apples-to-oranges pitfall of stacking a current series against a money supply.
For readers who still want the provocation, a flow of $46 trillion, divided by about $22.195 trillion in US M2 money supplies, according to the August 2025 figures, gives a rough ratio close to 207%although the series measures different things and should not be interpreted as a “share of dollars.”
Per FRED And McKinseyThe correct conclusion is that stablecoins have entered the payments conversation in flow terms.
For US benchmarks, stablecoins remain smaller on an annual basis than wholesale transactions and about half of the automated clearinghouse system.
The Federal Reserve’s Fedwire Funds Service rose about $1.133 trillion in 2024, and Nacha’s ACH value, annualized over Q3 2025 volumes, is nearly $93 trillion.
These anchors show where on-chain dollars fit today and where the slope could matter as policy and distribution continue to open doors.
| Gauge / Metric | Value | Time base | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stablecoin settlement (TTM) | ~$46T | With a lag of twelve months, 2025 | a16z crypto |
| ACH value (on an annual basis) | ~$93T | Run rate of the third quarter of 2025 | MasterCard |
| Value of Fedwire Funds | ~$1,133 Q | Full year 2024 | FRBservices |
| Global payment value | ~$2.0Q | Full year 2024 | McKinsey |
A stock-to-stock lens helps measure the footprint of tokenized dollars in the basic monetary conversation.
With an average stablecoin float in the $250 billion to $300 billion range over the past year, the tokenized slice is just above 1% of the M2 money supply.
That framework is consistent with the idea that stablecoins function as instant-settlement wrappers on money market-like reserves rather than deposits, and it has implications for the government bond market because the composition of reserves is skewed toward short-term notes. The moving parts are the float and its turnover.
The rate indicates how intensely each dollar turns in the chain.
Dividing $46 trillion in twelve-month transfers by an average float of $250 billion to $300 billion yields an implied annualized turnover nearly 150 to 185 times larger. The figure is a color metric rather than a prosperity claim, as internal hops, exchange wallets and automated flows can drive up the numbers.
Custom transfer methods, such as the a16z style of internal movement settlement, can narrow the gap between raw and economic volume.
According to a16z cryptoCombining raw and custom series is a cleaner way to track adoption across retail transfers, B2B corridors, and exchange settlements.
The policy begins to define how and where these flows touch the regulated perimeter. The US GENIUS Act, which was signed into law in July, establishes a federal framework for issuer reserves, licensing and disclosures that banks and payment processors can underwrite.
The law gives agencies marching orders on rulemaking timelines and establishes the basis for issuance, retention, and supervised attestations. Issuer behavior is already shifting to a compliance-first lane.
The composition of the reserves brings the government bond market within reach. Stablecoin issuers collectively own more than $150 billion in U.S. Treasuries, putting the sector among the larger marginal buyers at the front.
As the stablecoin float expands to include new distribution channels, the additional demand for Treasury bills becomes a mechanical function of growth and reserve policy rather than a discretionary trade. That link is becoming important for tariff agencies and public sector regulators who monitor the supply of invoices.
Distribution is the second driving force behind the throughput figures.
Card networks, processors, and enterprise wallets are starting to integrate on-chain settlement into checkout flows, vendor payments, and money transfer rails, often with stablecoins limited to the interbank portion while user interfaces remain familiar.
In select pilots and programs, multiple dollar stablecoins are now available within the network, increasing adoption paths without requiring a change in consumer behavior.
That template, combined with base tiers with lower costs and faster block times, fuels the throughput head more than purely speculative churn.
Stablecoin payment flow modeling
Forward scenarios through 2027 focus on three variables: policy cadence, distribution depth and reserve carry.
A baseline path with normalized US oversight and expanding fintech integrations points to a stablecoin float of roughly $450 billion to $650 billion and twelve-month transfers of nearly $70 trillion to $90 trillion, implying a 3% to 4.5% share of global payments value as the McKinsey denominator at its historical pace grows.
A trajectory of higher adoption, which includes payroll, merchant settlement, and issuance by supervised U.S. banks, moves the float toward $800 billion to $1.2 trillion, with $110 trillion to $150 trillion in annualized transfers and a global share of 5% to 7%, in addition to $300 billion to $500 billion in government bonds if the reserve policy remains heavy.
A slower path that reflects stricter filtering of non-economic transfers and delayed on-ramp rules would leave the float in a range of $350 billion to $450 billion and throughput in the neighborhood of $50 trillion to $60 trillion, keeping the global share closer to 2.5% to 3%.
These ranges are directional and should be evaluated with custom transfer sequences to reduce noise from internal wallet movements.
Flow metrics include internal hops and automated strategies that are not always correlated with economic activity, and timebases vary between different sources, with global payments anchored in 2024 while the stablecoin count is still current.
Labeling flow versus inventory, and combining raw products with customized series, avoids overestimation of acceptance, while still reflecting the scale of settlement now taking place in public chains.
According to a16z cryptothe combination of custom volume and portfolio cohorting is the better indicator of new use cases.
Regulatory alignment now fuels issuers’ roadmaps. Tether has outlined a US-regulated USA₮ product that will be issued under the new framework, and Anchorage Digital will act as the issuing entity.
What does this mean for Bitcoin and crypto?
For the markets, a $46 trillion share, ~2.3% of global payments value, flowing through “dollar tokens” means the dollar leg of crypto is getting deeper and faster, which is positive for BTC/ETH liquidity.
For Bitcoin, thicker stablecoin pools on exchanges and in market maker inventories reduce fiat friction and tighter spreads, which tends to increase spot/perp volumes and improve price discovery in risk windows.
For Ethereum, stablecoins are a primary user of blockspace (increasingly on L2s); Greater payment throughput generally means more fee revenue, a greater tendency to burn under EIP-1559, and a clearer boundary between payment activities and ETH cash flows and supply dynamics.
If policy continues to broaden distribution (banks, processors, corporate wallets), stablecoin float and turnover could become a leading indicator for the next phase of BTC demand and a structural tailwind for the ETH network economy, while also dampening some volatility as on-chain dollars provide 24/7 liquidity during macro shocks.
