Bitcoin hit an all-time high of nearly $126,000 in early October, while the altcoin market (excluding stablecoins), as measured by TradingView’s TOTAL2ES index, remains below the November 2021 high around $1.6 trillion, leaving the cycle confirmation test open for rotation outside of BTC.
TOTAL2ES will continue to trade below this range until mid-October, meaning altcoins have not reached a new high this cycle, just as Bitcoin has.
It managed to reach $1.48 trillion on the same day Bitcoin printed its latest all-time high, leaving it $120 billion behind its 2021 high, while Bitcoin broke its 2021 record by 84%.
The short-term tape is formed by three forces of interest, whether this is the top or a staging area for a marginal new high.
First, capital flows through US spot Bitcoin ETFs remain the clearest indicator of marginal demand. Farsides The consolidated table shows net creations and redemptions on a day-to-day basis, allowing an easy check on persistent inflows that have historically accompanied upward attempts. Digital asset ETPs recorded a weekly record of around $5.95 billion in early October, providing a one-week snapshot of the high demand that must continue to sustain higher prices.
Second, liquidity and policy expectations interact with the crypto tape. The White House’s plan to impose 100% tariffs on imports from China starting November 1 has increased macro uncertainty spilling over into risky assets and cryptocurrencies, with headlines appearing in the same time frame as Bitcoin’s peak and decline.
Retailers and supply chains are bracing for the new levy, and the timing around the holidays means complicated inventory and pricing decisions. At the same time, Federal Reserve officials are openly discussing another rate cut in October, and future expectations can be tracked at CME Fed Watch. A softer dollar based on dovish guidance would generally support risk, while another tightening would do the opposite.
Third, funding stress for the dollar remains a practical constraint. The Financial times reported a multi-day jump in the use of the Fed’s Standing Repo Facility, a permanent safety net that banks can tap when short-term funding tightens. Increased utilization of the SRF is a clear sign that dollar liquidity is limited, limiting speculative flows until they decline.
With these factors in mind, the market alternates between three forward paths that rely on ETF flows, option positioning and USD liquidity.
The scenarios below outline what should happen next for a summit, a marginal expansion, or more time spent building a summit.
| Scenario | Conditions to watch | Plausible path and timing | Price ranges by model | Invalidity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Top already inside | US Spot BTC ETFs Exhibit Flat or Negative Net Flows Over Multiple Sessions (On the other side), 25-delta-skew remains heavy on Deribit via LaevitasSRF usage remains high, indicating tight USD liquidity (FT). | Breakdown between 94k and 122k for several weeks, then breakdown on repeated daily closes below about 108k. | Apply a 35% to 55% drawdown range at the $126k ATH, which equates to $82k to $57k as stress test declines, with a 12 to 18 month bear length band derived from previous cycles. | Five to ten consecutive sessions of broad ETF inflows, a skew to calls, a decisive daily close above $126.3k. |
| Leave marginally high | Multi-session ETF creations plus calmer trading news around the rate path, a softer USD tone on dovish Fed commentary and FedWatch probabilities. | Impulse through the high, short rejection, retest, then a marginal new top before distribution. | $135,000 to $155,000 in Q4 as measured range of motion, consistent with late-cycle extensions of 7% to 23% above prior ATH. | Return of net outflows and continued put premium. |
| Extensive top structure | Mixed ETF flows, implied volume, unresolved rates, intermittent SRF usage. | Range trading from $100,000 to $125,000 through the end of November, which is essentially a time-based top that delays a clean sweep. | The second attempt will take place in early 2026, with the trajectory depending on whether flows expand beyond BTC. | A clean breakout with volume or sustained multi-day creations. |
The drawdown stress test band reflects cycle history. NYDIGs cycle work shows deeper retracements in previous bears, including about 57% after the 2017 peak and about 76% after the 2013-2014 peak. The ETF wrapper and deeper spot liquidity argue for a potentially more lenient, but still strict, risk management bandwidth.
What makes this moment different for altcoins is the missing confirmation.
In previous bulls, altcoin market cap eventually surpassed the high of the previous cycle as risk pivoted along the curve. Today, TOTAL2 remains below that range of $1.63 trillion to $1.7 trillion, even after Bitcoin’s ATH in early October.
This gap means that ETF-driven inflows are concentrated in BTC for longer than in previous cycles, or macro liquidity limits capital rotation, causing high beta to underperform. The clean, objective rotation trigger is a weekly close for TOTAL2ES above that band.
The positioning of currents and derivatives adds texture to the rotation test. The spike in ETP subscriptions in early October was accompanied by widespread interest in BTC and ETH, with Solana and XRP also recording large prints.
If these inflows continue for multiple sessions on the daily ETF tape, the chances of a late marginal high rise are higher. When creations stagnate or reverse, division becomes stronger.
On the options side: 25-delta skew on Deribit, followed by Laevitasremains the simplest measure to determine whether insurance policies with downside risks maintain a premium after the macro shock. A shift to call premiums often precedes the follow-through of upward price declines, while continued demand for puts often limits the rally.
On the supply side, miners are facing tighter operating margins. Hashprice, a measure of miners’ earnings per PH per day, fell below about $50 to $53 in October, while the hashrate fell past about 1 ZH per second, putting pressure on older fleets. from Luxor Hashrate index the trend shows in real time, further price weakness, higher energy costs, or both, could force periodic miner selling into thin books, which could amplify the downside on a falling band.
The cycle timing still matches the usual cadence after the halving.
The peaks in the last two cycles reached about 526 days after the 2016 halving and about 546 days after the 2020 halving. If we translate that to the halvings of April 20, 2024, from mid-October to the end of November in the historical peak window. The clock does not determine the outcome, but anchors the time frame in which the flow and liquidity signals are typically most important to risk.
At the heart of the story is whether ETF-era demand is increasing and whether liquidity conditions are easing enough for that demand to persist.
If multi-session creations return, options shift to calls, and SRF usage calms down, a marginal new BTC high in the $135,000 to $155,000 band is plausible before distribution. If the flows remain mixed or negative and the put bid persists, the distribution path carries more weight and the stress test drawdown band becomes the relevant risk management framework.
Until TOTAL2ES hits the 2021 high on a weekly close, the cycle lacks classic altcoin confirmation, and the tape is trading that way.
An interesting point to note is that TOTAL2, which includes stablecoins, broke its all-time high in 2021 by $20 billion on October 7, reaching $1.77 trillion.
However, we did not use this composition for our analysis because sidelined stablecoins are not indicative of an altcoin bull run. In fact, high value of parked stablecoins often comes from rotations out of risky assets.
