Should BNB Bull Run Be Corrected Amid Community Backlash?

BNB’s long-standing upward trend could be threatened by a growing divergence in market data and the recent community backlash over technical issues during the recent Black Friday crash.

Beneath the surface, perpetual data tells a more complex story for BNB.

Aggregated cumulative volume delta – a measure of net buying and selling pressure – rose to $3.3 billion from $2.34 billion in February, according to CoinGlass data. Conversely, total CVD on futures fell further into negative territory over the same period, from -$41 billion to -$45.8 billion.

The divergence is not bearish and represents hedging flows, DarkFrost, a pseudonymous verified analyst at CryptoQuant, told me. Declutter.

“If we see Spot CVD rising while Futures CVD continues to fall sharply, it means investors are betting on the longer term, further strengthening BNB’s trend and fundamentals,” DarkFrost added.

It could also reflect a “market-wide shift toward spot positions,” especially given the recent historic liquidation event in the crypto market, the analyst explained.

While the long-term outlook is optimistic, a closer look at CVD behavior over the past two weeks reveals a more nuanced picture.

A drop in CVD signals selling, but its combination with open interest (the total number of open long and short positions) provides a comprehensive view of market participants’ positioning.

If CVD and open interest fall together, this indicates short covering. On the other hand, a rise in CVD and open interest would be a bullish signal, indicating an increase in long positions.

Currently, open interest for BNB has fallen 36% over the past week to 555,000 BNB, while both perpetual and spot CVDs are declining, indicating active selling or profit taking.

Binance and BNB

Binance and some of its products have faced headwinds in recent days due to recent mispricing incidents by Oracle and the temporary disconnection of wrapped assets including USDe, a synthetic dollar issued by Ethena; BNSOL, a Solana liquid staking derivative listed by Binance; and wBETH, Binance’s packaged version of staked Ether.

“The recent oracle errors and short-term depegs… caused a rapid decline in confidence,” Alexandr Kerya, VP Product Management at CEX.IO, told me. Declutter. “Any technical problem within a large ecosystem will obviously put pressure on the original token in the short term.”

Kerya noted that while user confidence was hit, “selling pressure appears limited, with the broader crypto market sell-off playing a larger role in the asset’s recent decline.”

BNB has also been boosted by news that Coinbase added BNB to its listing roadmap this week, signaling support for the cryptocurrency issued by its rival exchange.

The combination of complex derivatives positioning and simmering community sentiment suggests that while BNB’s bull run remains fundamentally intact, it may face a near-term pullback or corrective action.

BNB is down 0.7% over the past 24 hours and is currently trading at $1,181, CoinGecko data shows.

Ultimately, the token’s ability to maintain its momentum could depend on Bitcoin’s recovery, which in turn depends on improved macroeconomic conditions and the return of institutional demand.