Bitmart Research, the army of research Bitmart Exchangehas issued an extensive report about Blockchain-based prediction marketsExamining the rapid evolution of the sector after the breakthrough performance of polymarket during the American elections of 2024. While traditional level models are faltering, decentralized prediction platforms gain grip by offering faster, more accurate predictions with transparent mechanisms on chains. Supported by recent financing rounds from top companies such as Coinbase and paradigm, redefining projects such as Kalshi, Limitless, Myriad and Flipr both prediction of institutional quality and social-driven engagement. With a double speed in the approval of the regulations and product innovation, the forecast market sector is ready to come forward and an important part of both the financial and information infrastructure of Web3.
1. Background in the industry
The popularity of polymarket during the American elections of 2024 meant a turning point for prediction markets, which performed better than traditional polls by offering faster and more accurate predictions. This showed the principle that “price is the same as probability.”
In 2025, the sector saw fast upgrades in both capital and product development. Almost ten projects have collected financing since June, with the support of Coinbase, Paradigma and Delphi. The profession lies in the benefits of blockchain: open participation, transparent and unchanging data and direct financial exposure without intermediaries.
Two clear development paths are on the rise. Kalshi CFTC in all 50 states obtained at the compliance side, while Polymarket gained QCX for the coverage of the American regulatory authorities. On the product side, projects such as countless and Flipr inclusion prediction functions in social platforms, huts boundless clob model of the base chain for deeper liquidity and drift experiments with integrating predictions in delivery of derivatives. In comparison with 2024, the market is considerably ahead of compliance, innovation and user scenarios.
2. Characteristics of the key mechanism
Trade models:
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Order book: Used by polymarket and kalshi, efficient with strong liquidity but vulnerable in thin markets.
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AMM: offers continuous trade without counterparties, but is sensitive to low liquidity and parameter risks.
Types of contract:
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Binary: permanent payment of event results, the most common for elections and sport.
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Categorical: treats multiple exclusive results.
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Scalar: linked to numerical values such as economic indicators.
Oracles: Using platforms such as polymarket use UMA to bring Real-World’s results to the chain for settlement, improving trust and reducing disputes.
Other factors: Gas costs, UX design and reimbursement structures are competitive capacity and user conservation.
3. Analysis of leading projects
Polymarket
Polymarket became known during the American elections and other global events in 2024, which performed better than traditional polls with faster and more accurate predictions. Built on the Layer 2 network of polygon, offers low costs, high transit and mainly has binary “yes/no” markets that relate to politics, economy, sports and social topics.
According to polymarketanalytics, the cumulative trade volume has exceeded $ 898 million, so that it is first placed worldwide. With regard to the number of users and open interest, Kalshi has surpassed it. This was largely due to earlier compliance restrictions that American users have blocked to gain access to the platform. In 2025 this limitation was lifted after the US Department of Justice had completed its investigation in July. Polymarket further strengthened its compliance by acquiring QCEX, a CFTC-figured derivative exchange and Clearinghouse, for $ 112 million.
In June, Polymarket collaborated with Elon Musk’s X to integrate prediction data into Grok, XAI’s AI system, which offers real-time predictive feeds and to extend its influence in media and market analyzes. While Kalshi is currently the strongest competitor because of compliance and political support, Polymarket retains advantages to be on-chain, with the expectations of token transitions that create extra stimuli for early participants. With dissolved regulatory barriers, Polymarket now has double growth engines-blockchain-native incentives and integration of compliance.
Kalshi
Kalshi is the first fully regulated prediction market approved by the CFTC, with licenses that cover all 50 American states. This status provides immediate legitimacy with traditional investors and institutions. In contrast to blockchain-native platforms, Kalshi allows direct trade over Real-World results instead of derived proxies. The contracts are mainly binary, which include a broad scope of macro -economic data (inflation, unemployment) to elections, sports and even crypto price movements.
Kalshi’s competitive advantage is in compliance, capital and political connections. The platform has collected more than $ 260 million from leading investors such as Sequoia Capital, Paradigm and Y Combinator, with a valuation of $ 2 billion. Politics, former CFTC commissioner Brian Quintenz served on the board, and Donald Trump Jr. Acts as an adviser, which means that both public influence and regulatory reach are a boost. Kalshi position these benefits prior to polymarket in user acceptance and institutional acceptance.
Limitless
Limitless is a prediction platform for basic chains using a CLOB system comparable to centralized exchanges. It supports limit and market orders and categorical contracts, with a settlement powered by Pyth Network Oracles. Markets include crypto, shares and macro -economic indicators, with USDC as the settlements.
To date, Limitless has processed around $ 299 million in cumulative volume, with $ 291 million from V1 and $ 8.23 million from V2. The total reimbursement income is $ 107,000. In July 2025, Limitless collected $ 4 million in a strategic round led by Coinbase Ventures and 1 Confirmation and became the largest prediction market based on.
Countless markets
Launch by media company Dastan Inc., integrates countless decentralized prediction trade with digital content. Through a Chrome extension, the prediction markets directly enclose in news, social media and video platforms, making the interaction between “content-axis-market” possible.
Myriad uses an AMM binding curve model and supports binary, categorical and scalar contracts. It has processed 5.63 million transactions, with 388,000 active portfolios and $ 11.26 million in total trade volume. The advantage lies in seamless integration with media ecosystems and offers a new monetization model and promotes sticky user involvement in politics, sports, crypto and macro themes.
Flipr
Flipr is a most social-first prediction interface built on X. The access point is Fliprbot, a trade bone with which users can easily place bets by tagging it in tweets or sending DMs of natural language. It supports Leveraged Trade, Stop-Loss/Take-Profit Orders and Volatility Protection, while the prediction in group chats and communities is enclosed.
Flipr’s token $ flipr acts at $ 0.017 with a market capitalization of $ 17.21 million. In contrast to Polymarket or Kalshi, Flipr does not directly competit in liquidity or compliance, but distinguishes itself as a social overlay instead, which considerably reduces predictions into interactive content and the user barriers is considerably reduced.
4. Future prospects
Forecast markets are likely to evolve along one dual-track:
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Massification through social integration: Platforms such as Flipr prediction directly in conversations, reduce friction and broaden the participation.
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Institutional approval through compliance: Platforms such as kalshi use of regulatory licenses to attract traditional capital and integrate with risk management systems.
This double approach suggests that prediction markets can function as both entertainment and sentiment tools for the public, as a financial infrastructure for professional institutions. There are still three major challenges:
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Liquidity restrictions: Limited depth increases the spreads and undermines the trading experience.
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Regulatory uncertainty: Extending gambling and derivatives, prediction markets are confronted with legal gray zones in many areas of law. Construction frameworks that balance decentralization with legal compliance will be crucial for regular acceptance.
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Capital efficiency: Without mechanisms of revenue generation comparable to traditional financial aids, prediction markets struggle to withdraw sticky institutional capital.
If these challenges persist, the growth remains speculative and event -driven. However, if capital efficiency and legal frameworks improve, the forecast markets can scale up to the core infrastructure for information aggregation, risk management and financial innovation.
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